Research Of The Financial Accelerator Effect Of The Fluctuation Of China’s Macro-economy

A lot of facts have proved that financial system can strongly influence thefluctuation of macro-economy. The financial system can accelerate and amplify theeconomic impact. At present, the changes in financial market give more and moreimpact to macro-economy, global monetization of economy is deepening gradually,the factors of currency and credit are playing a more and more important part of everycountry’s economy. Traditional economic theories can not adequately and reasonablyexplain the inner mechanism of the effect. We need to understand and master thecharacteristics and laws of China’s financial accelerator effect to guarantee China’seconomy could runs placidly and quickly. How to utilize the financial acceleratoreffect accurately and reasonably, how to make it promote the macro-economy, andhow to reduce the damage brought up by adverse impacts are urgently needed to beaddressed.It should take3steps to solve the questions mentioned above. Firstly, it shouldbe checked that whether China’s financial system can accelerate and amplify thefluctuation of the macro-economy. Secondly, each financial variable’s financialaccelerator effect should be analyzed. Thirdly, financial accelerator effects of positiveand negative impact are asymmetric or not, and what measures should be taken toguarantee China’s economy could runs placidly and quickly.Based on the questions mentioned above, this thesis has introduced the theoriesabout financial accelerator, expounded the progress of the research of financialaccelerator and its application, analyzed the channels of financial accelerator, and thefactors that can influence the financial accelerator effect. In terms of empiricalresearches, the following work has been done in this thesis:Firstly, this thesis has proved that there exists the financial accelerator effect inChina. This thesis uses the VEC model to compare the impacts’ influence to themacro-economy in2cases: one includes the financial accelerator, and the other doesnot. The result shows that monetary shock can accelerate and amplify the fluctuationof the macro-economy, and there is not financial accelerator effect in the stockmarket.Secondly, this thesis has researched each factor’s financial accelerator effect to China’s macro-economy. This thesis uses the nonparametric model to estimate eachfactor’s influence separately. The result shows that through the transmissionmechanism of financial accelerator effect, both of China’s monetary market and thechange of enterprise assets can influence the macro-economy, and the latter’sinfluence is stronger.Thirdly, this thesis has proved that China’s financial accelerator effect isunsymmetrical. This thesis uses ARCH and GARCH models to process the data anduses the TARCH model to prove the asymmetry. The result shows that monetaryshock’s influence to output is unsymmetrical, the negative impacts’ influence isstronger; enterprise assets’ influence to financing costs is unsymmetrical, the negativeimpacts’ influence is stronger; enterprise financing costs’ influence to assets isunsymmetrical, the positive impacts’ influence is stronger.Finally, based on the results of theoretical researchs and empirical researchs, thisthesis offers some suggestions to utilize the financial accelerator effect reasonably andguarantee China’s economy could runs placidly and quickly. The suggestions can bedivided into3aspects: improving enterprises’ financing environment and enhancingthe capacity of financing; perfecting the credit market and constructing the socialcredit system; knowing accurately the macro-economic situation and implementingreasonably the macroeconomic regulations and controls.