Comparative Study Of Monetary Policy Effects On China’s Bull And Bear Market

The volatility of the stock market has been a focus on the topic of academic andsocial, the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market has also beenthe concern of experts and scholars at home and abroad, but few studies in theasymmetric impact of monetary policy on the stock market, the traditional monetarypolicy asymmetric monetary policy in the period of economic prosperity andrecession there is a clear difference. This article detailed analysis of the monetarypolicy transmission channels affect the stock market, the theory of monetary policy inthe Bull and Bear differences incentive impact on the stock market, and refer to thecommon stock of three Bull and Bear stepwise method, based on the breakpointtesting and other statistical techniques, get the longest time and biggest wave after theshare reform as the research sample, and then rely on the VAR model, using the ADFtest, Granger causality, impulse response and variance decomposition techniques fordifferent market situation to analysis monetary policy differentiated impact on thestock market.Under the premise of China’s stock market data to distinguish between Bull andBear, the stock market and monetary policy, macroeconomic on a system empiricalresearch among the dynamic relationship. The empirical results show that the impactof monetary policy in the stock market situation there is a significant asymmetry ofmonetary policy in the bear market and monetary policy has closer relationships withstock market, the existence of multiple causal relationship of each variable in a bearmarket and the stock market, And the effect of monetary policy on the stock market isstable, compared to the bull market period there is money supply, the only policyvariable on the stock market have a stable impact response, and the causal fewer thana bear market in the Granger test sample.Specific see the different monetary policy variables, the money supply as theintermediate target of quantitative tools in a bull market more obvious results, betterthan the bear market performance, interest rates and credit instruments outperformedthe bull market of the bear market period, showing stable direction, in which theinterest rate showed a strong impact strength, two policy tools deviate from thetheoretical expected performance during the bull market, relatively ineffective, thenthe impact from monetary policy asymmetry theory of the stock market to carry out acomparative analysis of these phenomena. In addition it is worth noting that the Bulland Bear of the stock market in the macroeconomic equal status, the macroeconomicimpact of the stock market during the bull market is stronger than the bear marketperiod, which indicates that the terms of monetary policy to stabilize the stock marketfor the operating target, the bull market of the money supply operation may cause thestock market and macroeconomic fluctuations in the stock market during the bearmarket, the macroeconomic impact of the weak. Finally, not only monetary policyshould appropriate adjustments base on different stock market trend, to avoidexcessive volatility of the stock market and the real economy, the stock market should also improve their own, play a role of resource allocation and signal transduction, andbe an effective channel of monetary policy, aim of contribute to improve theeffectiveness of monetary policy.