Our Country Commercial Bank Consumer Credit Growth Effect Research

Consumer Credit rapid growth since the1980s, after more than10years ofdevelopment, China’s consumer credit balances from an increase of45.617billion yuanin1998to10.436trillion yuan in the end of2012. The same time, the term structure ofconsumer credit are also constantly change and improve the balance of medium-andlong-term consumer credit, on the whole, a large proportion of the total amount ofconsumer credit, but in recent years, China’s credit card rapid expansion of people’sconsumption concept change short-term consumer credit, resulting in a higher averagegrowth rate than the medium-and long-term consumer credit.From the different term consumer credit impact on economic growth mechanism,the paper by the DSGE model to explore the effect of consumer credit impact oneconomic growth, results showed that short-term consumer loans and long-termconsumer credit showed a positive relationship with economic growth, comparingwords,the timeliness of short-term consumer loans of less than medium-and long-termconsumer loans. In the price level, short-term consumer loans inflationary pressures,long-term consumer loan rates have a positive impact in the short term would beinterested in the price level negative effect in the long term, to achieve the effect ofinflation. On this basis, the paper uses the dependence on short-term (long-term)consumer credit, short-term (long-term) consumer credit contribution rate, short-term(long-term) consumer credit pull three indicators of consumer credit and economicgrowth dynamic relationship, the results show the economic dependence of theshort-term consumer credit showed a stable upward trend in the volatility of long-termdependence on consumer credit; short-term consumer credit low rate of contribution tothe economy, medium-and long-term consumer credit contribution to the economy rate;short-term consumer loans and long-term consumer credit has a positive role in boostingthe economy, the economic pull of the short-term consumer credit steady upward trend inthe medium-and long-term consumer credit in the role in boosting economic growth isnot stable, by policy volatility. Empirical analysis, the paper select short-term consumer credit balance, the balanceof long-term consumer credit, consumer demand, GDP, CPI five indicators, the use oftime-series data of1997-2011years to build the vector autoregression model, resultsshowed that among the long-term balance of consumer creditan increase of1%will causeGDP growth of0.237%, the price level will drop to0.0850; short-term consumer creditoutstanding increased by1%, causing GDP growth rate of the price level will rise to0.0592%. Visible in the short term, short-term consumer credit outstanding impact oneconomic growth is greater than the medium-and long-term consumer credit, short-termconsumer credit will bring the rise in the price level, and long-term consumer creditinhibitory effect on the price level. Impulse response analysis, found that short-termconsumer loans and long-term consumer credit has a positive role in promoting economicgrowth, sustained period there is a difference; short-term consumer credit will result ininflationary pressures in the short term, and long-term consumer loans will curb pricelevel.Due to the different duration of the effect of economic growth and price levels ofconsumer credit, the requirements from the macro-economic, financial institutions andresidents to develop appropriate measures. Government should strengthen policyguidance, development of different consumer credit term structure development policiesin the different stages of economic development; financial institutions will have to focuson the development of the term structure of credit and foster multi-level consumer creditsystem; residents need to change the traditional ideology of consumption, the initiative toincrease long-term consumption.