China's Real Estate Price Fluctuations And Empirical Analysis Of Macro-control Effects

After the housing reform China’s real estate industry has a rapiddevelopment,especially in recent years the real estate business development effortscontinue to increase, the investment boom rising constantly, the price also hasshown a high growth state, the real estate industry has become a focus of attention inthe community,overheating in the real estate industry has also become an indisputablefact. Although the real estate industry for China’s economic growth has made thecontribution should not be underestimated but also exposed to violence such as theprices are too high, the purchasing power of residents and the price is not proportionalto the real estate market structure is irrational, not only greatly affect the quality oflife of residents rise to social conflicts, but also for the national economy as a wholecontinues to stable development of potential problems. Faced with this situation, aimsto guide the real estate market is stable, inhibition of the national macro-controlpolicy came into being real estate prices rising too fast, the various control policieswas the state of the high density and strong depth frequently introduced, however, theprices are not as The expected return to a rational level. Therefore, the understandingof the mechanism of price fluctuations of the real estate market and the effect ofgovernment regulation and control policy is urgentlyneeded.Proceed from the economic fundamentals of the first to explore China’s realestate market price fluctuation mechanism, from the long-run equilibrium andshort-run equilibrium analysis of the influencing factors of China’s real estate prices,take advantage of the36months of January2009to December2011the monthly dataof the real estate market, real estate prices influencing factors create a generalequilibrium model and error correction model. Discussing government regulation andcontrol policy, select the money supply, real estate tax, land acquisition area of thesethree indicators to represent the government’s control policy, SVAR model to explorethe role and impact of these three variables on real estate prices, the effect of theevaluation of government regulation and control policy.