Studies On Factors Influencing The Contribution Of Foreign Trade To Economic Growth And Its Dynamic Evolution

Based on Technology Diffusion Model、General Trade Interests Model and other theoriesfirst，the paper illustrates how trade effect the economic growth by geographical features、technical level、 trade commodity structure and capital investment channels,and put forward fivetheory hypothesis about the factors. Second,the paper based on the data of30provinces and citiesof China in1995–2010, used cointegration method to prove that geographical features、technicallevel、 trade commodity structure and capital investment significant influenced the contribution offoreign trade to economic growth; used PVAR model to study the process of ynamic evolutionabout the factors’ acting forces and the main influence factors.The paper’s research results showthat:(1) geographical features significantly affect a country or region’s contribution of foreigntrade to the economic growth;(2) the technical level significantly affect the contribution of foreigntrade to the economic growth,the effect appears a dynamic process that the acting forces firstlydecreases and then increase and finally steady;(3)the trade commodity structure significantly affectthe contribution of foreign trade to the economic growth, the effect appears a dynamic evoutionthat the acting forces firstly increase then decreases and finally steady;(4) the fixed assetsinvestment’s effect is significantly negative and the acting forces have a dynamic process thatfirstly negative to expand and then decreases and finally steady for the positive effect;(5) theforeign investment influence the contribution of foreign trade to the economic growth effect issmaller than others, the effect appears a dynamic process that firstly decreases then steady;(6) thedynamic evolution of main influence factors in the following order technical level、fixed assetsinvestment、trade commodity structure;(7)the change of the contribution of foreign trade toeconomic growth mainly depends on itsself. Finally,according to the conclusion,the paper puts forward the following five suggestions:(1)we should make full use of the regional geographicfeatures to improve the the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth;(2) we should perfecttechnology system and increase actions to support the technical innovation;(3) we shuoldconstantly adjust the trade structure according to our country economy developmentmandate;(4)we should reduce a part of fixed asset investment,and guide some funds enter into the...