Analysis Of The Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy Influence The Price Of Real Estate

The regional effects of monetary policy refers to the differences in differentregions of the same monetary policy’s effect. China is a country with notableeconomic development difference, there is a big difference between the developmentand economic structure of different region. At the same time, some factors such asmobility obstacles, different economic openness, unbalanced product diversificationdevelopment, lower financial integration determine that China can not constituteoptimum currency area. Moreover, China’s central bank regulates that China adopt auniform monetary policy across the country, which will inevitably lead to differenceswith the effect of monetary policy. Through the study of the real estate markettransmission mechanism of monetary policy, Compare the impact of real estateprices in different regions on interest rates, credit scale, money supply, at lastdraw a conclusion that we can address regional unbalanced effect of the real estatemarket by changing the structure of monetary policy or minimizing the dfferences indifferent regionsThe first chapter mainly presents the research background, significance andresearch purposes, describes the current research literature, the study of ideas andmethods. This paper will combine theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,comparative analysis and comprehensive analysis, then use VAR method tocointegration test, cointegration stability test, Granger causality test and impulseeffects analysis for the data model. The second chapter introduces the related theoryand the theoretical basis of the real estate area and the themonetary policy. Includingreal estate price theory, monetary policy theory and regional effects of monetarypolicy and the tools and goal of monetary policy. The third chapter describes theeffect mechanism for the real estate prices of the monetary policy Through the sideof the People’s Bank of monetary policy, analysis the mechanism of interest rates,,total amount of credit and money supply, theoretically study the impact of monetarypolicy on real estate prices. The fourth chapter takes a empirical test of the real estate price factors exist regional effects. First, explain the selection of the variables of themodel, and then describe the quarterly average prices among east, central, and westregions; the annual national inflation rate, the size of credit, bank lending ratesweighted average seven days; the inter-bank quarterly data of average interest ofbond pledged repo market and so on. In the part of empirical section, we make thestationary test for three area of the real estate data and intermediate target ofmonetary policy, establish VAR model to take the Granger cointegration test, andthen analysis the impulse response.The degrees and the impact of factors in realestate prices were compared. The empirical results show that the eastern area is moresensitive to the weighted average lending rate of7days, central and west regions areassociated with greater monetary factors,and sensitive to the total amount of creditand money supply. And at lasr summarizes the main reasons of the performancecharacteristics for this regional. The fifth chapter mainly based on the results of theempirical analysis, drawing on experience in the United States and Japan toeliminate regional effects differences of monetary policy, The article consider cansolve the problem of balanced regional development of the real estate market in theregional effects of monetary policy by the following way: deepening the financialsystem, building regional factor mobility, enhancing the anti-monopoly regulationand establishing related regulations.