The Empirical Study Of Fair Value Procyclicality From The Perspective Of Financial Stability

When the global financial storm comes, Wall Street bankers and financial regulatorsbegan to focus on risk control, however, it is too late, the global financial crisis has spread.Now, they have pointed the finger at fair value, whether it can truly reflect the real valueof the assets; If too much underestimate the value of assets in the financial crisis; Whetherintensified the volatility of the financial statements, frustrated investors’ confidence, andeven accused the pro-cyclical, intensifying the financial crisis.This paper was based on the perspective of financial stability to verify the abovequestion, whether the fair value exacerbated the financial crisis really or just "scapegoat".First, it introduces the formation and development of fair value, combing the fair valuerelevance, reliability, and explanation of related theoretical perspectives, and analyzes therelations between fair value and the financial crisis and about whether fair value pro-cyclical aggravate crisis; Then, fair value pro-cyclical theory analysis, first introduced thefair value pro-cyclical effect form, again in this paper, introduced the fair value of the pro-cyclical effect reason, finally analysis the fair value pro-cyclical transmission mechanism.Then based on the commercial bank of China, made the event study, using2008to2009as the research range, make the analysis the stock yields of commercial Banks and thefinancial condition of interaction, taking into account the financial position of the four bigcommercial Banks, the condition of bad assets, investors expect, verify whether the fairvalue is pro-cyclical. Verification results show that there is a certain degree of pro-cyclicalfair value, but it did not make the prices of financial assets in a vicious cycle.