A Research On The Land Price Inlfation Persistence In China Based On Bayesian Method

Recent years, The real estate industry in our country show explosive growthtrend,Which greatly stimulated the sustainable development of economy in china.Meanwhile a series of problems Such as high housing prices and land pricesaccompanying, which seriously affected the people’s standard of living. People areeager to pierce the "bubbles" in the real estate industry to make the housing and landprices to return to normal levels. Especially, In which of the situations that the currentgovernment treat regulations of the land management as a major move for stateintervention in the macro economy. It is very necessary to find out the sustainabilitylevel of land price inflation, Thereby avoiding to make wrong land control policiesbecause of the delay problem. Based on the background, This article selects the landprice inflation persistence feature as the research object,Then made an relatedempirical analysis model,obtaining some corresponding conclusions.The main contents of this thesis includes: Firstly, mading a theoretical analysisto the land price inflation persistence characteristic. this thesis defined the relevantconcepts,gave the measurement methods for land price inflation, expounded the landprice inflation persistence feature according to the game theory, and illustratedthrough the land price data. Secondly, collecting the land transaction’s price index ofquarterly data in China from1998to2010,constructing re-coefficient of AR(P)model combination with Bayesian method, empirical studies showing that the landprice inflation persistence exists in high level for the mean of rho is0.9041. And themodel fitting degree was great through the MCMC convergence.Thirdly, studying thethreshold effect of the land price inflation persistence,and the BDS nonlinear test tothe data was given, Then, building a bayesian two state threshold autoregressivemodel, discovering only had a little difference in persistence in the two state model,and both were lower. Finally, according to the empirical results of this paper we gotthe key suggestion, namely, when the prices rose to a certain level caused that thegovernment had to make some regulations and control policies, the governmentshould consider the level of land price inflation persistence fully. Then avoidingpolicies lagged effect effectively, in order to prevent the sustainability rising of landprice, achieve the ideal condition of macroeconomic regulation and control at thesame time.