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Study On The Relationship Between The Rate And The Inflation Rate And Economic Grouth Rate Of Chinese Stock Returns

Posted on:2014-02-02Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:X M MengFull Text:PDF
GTID:2269330425461633Subject:Project management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the development of our market economy and perfect, our country’s stock market after20years of development and changes, initially has a mature financial market function, and attract people’s attentions, the stock has been a popular widely accepted investment, and investment proportion of stocks and other financial assets continues to rise. In recent years, the consumer price index goes tall continuously caused the wide attention of people, people pay more and more attention to stocks and other financial assets which will have the fight against inflation caused by the depreciation of assets risk ability. The two key elements of a measure of the modern market economy are:the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. Between the existence of certain influence, especially the price stability that influences to economy is more prominent, at the same time, the size of the stock market and price fluctuation on China’s economic aspects have a far-reaching impact, the fluctuation of stock price and economic growth between the certain relationship. In real economic life, to study the relationship of the three factors between the economies has certain realistic meaning and theoretical value.In the real economic situation, this paper tries to select a representative, timeliness, the authenticity of the annual and monthly data, by using VAR model, cointegration test, impulse response and variance decomposition methods of quantitative studies on three relationships among empirical study, draw more reliable conclusion:(1) The stock return rate and the inflation rate affect the two economic variables of the more obvious, and has a positive correlation.(2) The relationship between the stock return and the rate of economic growth is not very obvious, and has very small effects of each other.(3) In the current economic market, stock return, economic growth rate and inflation rate of the three macroeconomic variables is mainly due to variation in their own factors, the other two factors have little effect.
Keywords/Search Tags:Stock Returns, Rate of Economic Growth, Inflation Rate, ImpulseResponse, Variance Decomposition Vector, Auto-Regression Model
PDF Full Text Request
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