| Since the housing reform in1998, our country real estate market as a whole presents the quantity and price "so" development momentum. Housing prices from rising too fast caused a controversy in the society, also caused the central government on housing prices problem caused by the financial risks and concerns of the people’s livelihood, since2005, in view of the real estate industry regulation emerge in endlessly. Irrationality and individual years house prices rising real estate regulation policy is strict, house prices generally rose more than15%, the next year will control policy.Real estate industry is typical of capital intensive industry, a complete set of commercial housing development process from the initial purchase of land, to the project construction, to real estate sales, need a lot of financial support. As a result of the real estate industry listed companies in the industry accounts for a smaller, real estate company’s financing mainly indirect financing from financial institutions (especially Banks). Among them, the developer loans to commercial Banks to strictly control measures lead to developers through normal channels to raise funds from the bank blocked roads, developers must find new financing channels, and so on the asset side, represented by the trust, private financial institutions began to a large number of real estate development loans market, partly replace the role of the bank. On the liabilities side to "bank-trust cooperation products","products" and other commercial bank off-balance-sheet business, represented by a large number of residents savings also began in the form of these higher-yielding wealth management products "curve" into the field of real estate development. These financial institutions and financial products are often referred to as the "shadow banking".The so-called "shadow banking", is similar with the bank credit intermediary activities, but free from the traditional commercial bank system, there is little or almost unregulated financial institutions and financial instruments. The first chapter is the introduction part, put forward to research question, introduces the research background and significance, research contents and methods, to define the core concepts, describe the research framework, introduced this article possible innovation place.The second chapter is literature review that systematically introduced the real estate price fluctuations and the support of financial institutions credit relations theory research and empirical research.In the third chapter, in this paper, the characteristics of shadow banking, statistics in China makes a mouth and classification. Shadow banking at home on the liability side, that is, its credit expansion sources of funding. In addition, the third chapter reviews the development of the real estate industry and for the shadow banking credit support. It also introduces its in real estate investment trusts, for example in the form of credit support.Chapter4for the theoretical analysis part, theoretical analysis of the real estate price fluctuations and shadow banking credit relations theory study. First of all analyzes the real estate prices, from the real estate market information asymmetry and the perspective of the real estate credit market information asymmetry, the property of this special assets rise and fall of reason. Then respectively analyze prices and falling phase of shadow banking credit possible direction in real estate and its transmission mechanism.In the fifth chapter has carried on the empirical analysis, this paper validated the existence. Because of the shadow banking in our country the development of the relatively short time (2008-present), the lack of data makes the most headaches in the empirical research. The empirical part of this article from the real estate price fluctuations and the relationship of real estate investment trust, exploring the inner linkage between mechanism. This article choose monthly commercial housing sales price (P) and monthly circulation of real estate investment trust (L) two indicators as the research object, with the former monthly growth rate of the RP as explanatory variables, the latter’s monthly growth rate of RL is as explained variable, establish regression model, the analysis of the effect of house price fluctuations for the trust industry. The empirical results show that the growth rate of real estate investment trust circulation monthly between RL and the growth rate of commercial housing sale price per month RP has positive correlation, the coefficient of1.3186. But there is no Granger causality between.In chapter6, based on the two content puts forward policy recommendations for regulators:regression results show that the real estate investment trust on growth rate and house prices monthly growth rate has certain correlation relations, as well as the shadow banking risk hidden trouble. |
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