| Shipping industry is a typical industry.The impact of global economic fluctuations in the shipping market is enormous. Shipping Enterprise operating performance is immediately following the ups and downs of the global trade’s cyclical change.Therefore,the listed stock prices of shipping enterprises cannot be evaluated exactly.Thus,the search for a more intuitive and efficient method that can estimate shipping listed companies prices help the majority of shipping companies stocks investors evaluate the prices more efficiently.The main purpose of this paper is to examine the applicability of the Baltic Index in forecasting the future trend of Chinese listed shipping enterprises prices.Dry bulk shipping market is an very important part of international shipping market and its cargos,including iron ore,coal and gains,which have significant impacts on people’s life.In recent years,the freight rate index has fluctuated violently since the situation of international economy became more complicated.During2008,the Baltic Dry index(BDI) had got the peak to the lowest point in such a short time,which brought huge losses to relevant participants.Nowadays,the transport of international dry bulk have been playing a more and more important role in Chinese trading market.The shipping cycle has gradually replaced the agricultural cycle and others traditional industries cycles and has impressive reflected Chinese trading economy under the current globalization environment.As the world biggest international trading country, Dry bulk shipping market and its fluctuations should arise Chinese experts extra special attention.This paper selected the Baltic Dry Index,Chinese transportation index and three Chinese listed bulk carrier’s stocks to empirical analyzed the volatility and relevance after the financial crisis.Researchers abroad have done much work regarding the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index(BDI) and got some harvests.However,few of experts at home pay enough attention to the relationship between Chinese listed bulk carriers’ stocks prices and the Baltic Dry Index. This paper subdivided the whole dry bulk shipping market according the size of vessel.Then the study examine the relationship among Baltic Dry Index,Chinese transportation index and three Chinese listed bulk carriers’stocks.The empirical methods of unit root test,Cointegration test,impulse response function based on the model of Vector Autoregression model(VAR) and Granger causality test are used. The empirical results showed the entire variables existed unit roof.From Johansen cointegration test and impulse response function base on the model of Vector Autoregression model indicated that there are long-term and short-term equilibrium relationships between the three Chinese listed shipping companies stocks and the Baltic Dry Index. In the long term,the transportation stocks prices will eventually converge with the Baltic Dry Index.During the short term,the BDI played a price discovery role in evaluating the Chinese listed bulk carriers’ stock prices. In addition,from Granger causality test result, the Baltic Dry Index and Chinese transportation index lead all of the three Chinese listed bulk carrier’s stocks.So this study support some suggestions that the investors can predict the volatility of Chinese dry bulk carriers stocks prices by the use of the Baltic Dry Index,Chinese transportation index.However, China’ security market is still in the developing stage,this study was based on simulated trading data which may cause the results inaccurate. So sustained attention should be pay in this study in the future. Besides,the stocks prices are effected by many other factors,such as short-term liquidity or the herd behavior of investers.Therefore,in the follow-up studies,all these factors should be considered to find a better index system to predict the shipping companies stock price volatility. |
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