| Financial disintermediation was originated in America in1960’s.As the product in the context of interest rates control, it mainly refers to the economic phenomenon that savings turn to higher-yielding securities when market interest rates are higher than the deposit interest rates of the depository institutions in the circumstance of interest rates control. As an important new economic phenomenon, financial disintermediation has early attracted the attention of researchers from many countries. Hester was the first to study the phenomenon, connotation, reasons and so forth of the financial disintermediation in the U.S. in1960’s. Since then, lots of scholars have studied the financial disintermediation in many countries; and the content was also gradually expanded to its impact on macro economy, such as the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and so on.Financial disintermediation is mostly associated with the financial market structure change and the financial deregulation. The process of economic system transition and financial market reform in our country was also the process of spawning and deepening the financial disintermediation. As an economic phenomenon within the financial system, financial disintermediation will also affect the financial system. And financial system links monetary policy and the real economy, thus financial disintermediation will indirectly affect the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.The financial crisis since2007has also had a negative impact on China. Several rounds of loose monetary policies, however, did not achieve the desired effect, and on the contrary largely fluctuated the national economy, inflation is also relatively high now, which caused the question to Chinese monetary policy transmission mechanism. Therefore, in such a complicated economic background, the research on how financial disintermediation affects Chinese monetary policy transmission mechanism is greatly significant without doubt. And this is also the focus of present paper. Given Chinese financial market is now dominated by banks, combined with the importance of banks in the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the financial disintermediation in this article refers to the phenomenon that the funds shortage units directly deal with the surplus units bypassing banks, which is also called bank disintermediation.In order to measure and analyze the financial disintermediation better, the present paper uses the intermediary ratio of non-financial corporations’liabilities to bank, namely NFEBD and the intermediary ratio of non-financial corporations’ assets to bank, namely NFBA based on Schmidt, Hackethal and Tyrell’s methods to check the bank disintermediation from assets level and liabilities level. And then the paper analyzes the main status quo, characteristics and main reasons of Chinese financial disintermediation.Next, the present paper discusses the theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism. Generally speaking, the monetary policy conduction channel could be sorted into money channel and credit channel, where money channel consists of interest rate channel, asset price channel and exchange rate channel while credit channel consists of bank credit channel and balance sheet channel. And interest rate channel is the root of the other channels. Moreover, the bank credit channel requires two conditions:loans and securities must be imperfect substitutes as bank assets as well as loans and securities as corporations’ liabilities. Actually, the bank credit channel is divided into two links:the link from the central bank to commercial banks and the link from commercial banks to corporations.Chinese development history of monetary policy can be roughly divided into two stages--1978to1990and1990till now. The bank credit channel outshined others in the first stage and in the second stage the bank credit channel has relatively got weakened while the role of others channels has come to show. Considering the important role of bank credit channel in our monetary policy conduction system and the basic role of interest rate channel, the study mainly focuses on those two channels. Theoretical analysis finds that financial disintermediation has invalidated the two assumption conditions of bank credit channel, which weakens this channel while the impact on interest rate channel is ambiguous due to opposite impacts on it. Therefore, this article moves on to empirically analyze how financial disintermediation affects those two channels. The present paper uses quarterly data from1990to2011, including GDP, CPI, and real interest rate calculated with one-year loan rate, fixed assets investment, M1and so on. The NFEBD mentioned above is used to investigate how financial disintermediation affects the first link of the bank credit channel from the central bank to the commercial banks and SLR—the ratio of banks holding securities to loans to investigate the second link mentioned above. The data come from all kinds of financial statistics yearbooks, RESSET database, etc. Some macro data are adjusted with seasonal adjustment methods and calculated their real values on the base period of1990Ql to make them more comparable. Some early years’ annual data are converted into quarterly data.Based on the data collection and processing, this article further makes the unit root test and cointegration test and finally establishes VAR models. After ensuring the stability of those models, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are made. The findings are that interest rate channel now is not the main channel of monetary policy transmission channels in China, although financial disintermediation has strengthened it, yet the extent is limited. Though the bank credit channel still plays an important role, yet it has got weakened by financial disintermediation. And the weakening is mainly reflected in the link from commercial banks to corporations instead of the link from the central bank to commercial banks. Although the central bank has business contact with commercial banks and policy constraints, but has no direct contact with the enterprise, which means that the weakening of this channel is more uncontrollable for the central bank. Meanwhile, this paper also establishes some simple error correction equations to test and confirm the conclusion above from different perspectives.On the basis of the analysis and empirical results above, this article presents the following suggestions in order to improve the monetary policy effectiveness:(I) Optimize the financial market layout and put its structure to perfection.(II) Choose reasonable quantitative policy tools to reduce the side effects of the bank credit channel.(Ⅲ) Push forward the interest rates marketization steadily to strengthen the function of the interest rate channel. |
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