| Since China liberalized the real estate policy, the rapid development of the real estate market has gradually attracted people’s attention and increased the contribution to the country’s economic growth. More and more people want for real estate purchasing, the influence of real estate prices to the people’s lives also became clear. Sichuan Province, as the economic and financial center in China’s southwest region, is rich in resources and is a comfort living place. Sichuan’s real estate market is also growing fast. Specifically, driven by the rich tourism resources and accelerated urbanization development as well as the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, the demand for real estate increased rapidly with its own characteristics. Therefore, the study of Sichuan real estate market will have a unique meaning. The most prominent sign of the development of the real estate market is the rise of real estate prices, real estate prices which rise too fast will affect people’s ability to buy real estate, affect people’s living standards. The real estate bubble is also detrimental to the healthy and harmonious development of the national economy. In order to ensure the stable and healthy growth of real estate prices, monetary policymakers had repeatedly introduced a variety of policies, central government and Sichuan government issued real estate policy to regulate the real estate prices. Have these policies played their expected roles, and through what channels have they impact real estate prices in Sichuan? It is a topic worth exploring.In the study of the impact of monetary policy to Sichuan real estate, the writer uses the different effects of monetary policy on the real estate market, that is, the introduption of the monetary policy transmission channels theory. Firstly, the writer studied the theory of transmission mechanism through the analysis of the monetary transmission channels and credit transmission channels of monetary policy, this is the theoretical basis for the article. It is followed by further review of the development of the domestic real estate market, as well as the Sichuan real estate market and its characteristics. The adequacy of the analysis of material ready for the empirical research, and also provide a reference for the empirical study of the variables selected. Based on former study experience of the impact of monetary policy on the real estate prices, the writer uses econometric model Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to verify the impact of different transmission channels of monetary policy on the real estate market in Sichuan, and to compare various channels contribution to real estate price.The empirical results show that the conduction of interest rates in the monetary transmission channel, credit transmission channel to Sichuan real estate prices are effective, which are consistent with the theory:negative changes in real estate prices caused by changes in interest rate policy, credit policy changes caused positive changes of real estate prices. But some part of empirical results there are not very consistent with the theoretical study:empirical research found that the impact of interest rate policy for the real estate prices are very small, and the role of the interest rate transmission channel needs to be improved; credit transmission channel significantly affect real estate prices in Sichuan, but credit policy for the real estate market in the conduction mainly by affecting the demand for real estate, and the impact of the credit transmission channel for the supply of real estate is not significant, that the credit transmission channel did not give full play to its conduction.The first part of this article is an introduction to explain the significance of this research, as well as a summary of previous studies. Summary of previous studies finds that monetary policy transmits mainly through monetary channels and credit channels, and the role played by the various channels is not the same in different regions, this paper focus on the situation in Sichuan real estate market.The second part of this paper is the theoretical part of the article, and mainly explains how the monetary policy transmission channels influences real estate prices. Summary of that research, the writer divides the monetary policy transmission channels into monetary transmission channels and the credit transmission channel. The monetary transmission channel includes the interest rate transmission channel, exchange rate transmission channels and the value of the assets portfolio transmission channel. The credit transmission channel includes bank credit transmission channel and the balance sheet transmission channels. Next, the author analyzes the mechanism of how the transmission channel of monetary policy influences the price of real estate, mainly from the impact of different monetary policy to the real estate market supply and demand. One important basis of the validity of interest rate transmission channels the assumption is no information asymmetry and the financial market is in a high degree of freedom, which means there is no financial controls. The premise of the effectiveness of the credit transmission channel is relatively loose, the credit transmission channels to be able to tolerate a certain degree of information asymmetry and financial control. Deviation of this assumption for explanations empirical test results is essential.The third part of this article is to analyze the specific situation of China’s real estate market and the real estate market in Sichuan. Through analysis of the1998real estate reform since the development of the real estate market and real estate prices, as well as national regulation of real estate prices means and ways. Analysis Sichuan real estate market conditions, both the analysis of Sichuan real estate supply and demand changes, and also a separate analysis of the changes of the real estate investment and real estate prices. Meanwhile, the author analyzes the main factors affecting the real estate prices, which provides empirical study for selecting variables.The fourth part is the empirical research part of this article, which is also a major part. The author selected statutory benchmark deposit rate of financial institutions, the amount of loans from financial institutions in Sichuan Province on behalf of the monetary transmission channels and credit transmission channels. At the same time the author added income levels, the supply of real estate, real estate demands as three other obvious factors. After the selection of vector auto regression model variables, respectively, the author used a stationary test and co-integration test to test stationarity of different variables, used Granger causality test to determine the existence of an effective impact of each variable on real estate prices in Sichuan. After stable vector auto regression model, the author applied the pulse response test and variance decomposition to study the way and the degree of influence of the monetary policy transmission channels to real estate prices in Sichuan, to develop the conclusions of the empirical research.The fifth part is the concluding part of this article, combining the part of the theoretical and empirical results to draw conclusions and make policy recommendations. Granger test, impulse response test, variance decomposition results confirm the effectiveness of the interest rate transmission channel and credit transmission channels, but also reflected the potential problems in the transmission process of monetary policy to the real estate prices in Sichuan. Including:the problem of monetary transmission channels is that influence of interest rates for real estate prices exist, but the impact is very small, the effectiveness of the interest rate transmission channel needs to be strengthened; credit transmission channel affect effectively to real estate prices in Sichuan, but the conduction effect is still not folly played, specifically, the performance in the credit policy on the supply of real estate is not obvious. With review of theoretical assumptions as well as the reference to the real estate market in Sichuan, the main reason is the diversity channel of the credit sources of real estate developers, which means their credit dependence on financial institutions is not high, thus weakens the credit transmission channel conduction. Based on the conclusion, the author proposed some suggestions, hopes that by strengthening the interest rate market, and broadens credit regulation and regulatory channels; the monetary policy can better play the role on the real estate prices in Sichuan.The main innovation of this paper and the contribution are as follows:the author selected the Sichuan region’s real estate market as the research object which is clear and practical, intended to provide research reference for the healthy development of the local real estate market. Based on previous studies of the system, the paper selected vector auto regression model to study the impact of different monetary policy transmission channels on real estate prices in Sichuan, the use of vector auto regression model of the topic in this region" is very innovative. Besides monetary transmission channels and credit transmission channels at the same time, the author also joined other variables that affect the real estate prices in Sichuan, as measured by the impulse response and variance decomposition test to compare the differences of different monetary policy transmission channels, and thus there are a more comprehensive analysis of monetary policy impact on Sichuan real estate prices. In the concluding section, the empirical results show that the credit transmission channel is not completely effective by further analysis, the author found the enormous impact of other sourcing channel of funds for real estate developers, such as real estate investment trust, to dilute the impact of the credit policy Sichuan real estate. Innovative financial instruments will be introduced to the sight of public, and this finding sets the foundation for further study of this topic and provides references. |
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