Empirical Research On Housing Prices And Sales To Demand Shocks In China

For a long time, the national economy has got a great develop relying on the development of the real estate industry in China. Abnormal development of the real estate market led to the housing bubble. The state introduced several real estate control policies to control prices after aware of its seriousness, but it did not achieve the desired effect. In the case of the government determining to suppress prices, the price and the trading volume declined at the same time, and the trading volume fell even more sharply. Real estate related to many industries, thus it affected the development of the whole national economy. It will be conducive to the healthy development of the whole economy if we find a way to make the prices decline to a certain range while maintain the growth of trading volume-control.This paper took the reaction speeds of China’s real estate prices and trading volume to demand shocks as the object of study. It explored the way to achieve the goal of harmonious between the real estate market price and the trading volume by regulating the effect factors of demand on the real estate market. Not also it has important theoretical significance, but also has profound practical significance.First of all, this paper reviewed the theoretical, empirical, model research literature on real estate prices and trading volume collaborative research at home and abroad. And expounded the connotation of fluctuations in real estate prices and trading volume volatility. At the same time, it explore the theoretical basis of the reaction speeds of China’s real estate prices and trading volume to demand shocks from the two director of real estate price determination and macro-control. Following, it sorted out the historical context and current situation of the development of China’s real estate market, and concluded the regulation course of China’s real estate market. It provided a realistic basis to compare the situation of China’s real estate prices and trading volume response to demand shocks.Since then, this paper took an empirical test with the quarterly data from2001to2011of China’s real estate market. Through the establishment of the VEC model and impulse response it tests the sensitivity of real estate prices and trading volume to the demand shocks. The empirical test come to a conclusion that under each chosen demand shocks, the real estate prices and trading volume are both profoundly influenced, and trading volume responses with a higher rate of change and bigger amplitude of variation.According to this empirical conclusion, the paper presents the policy recommendations to realize the goal of harmonious between price and trading volume. This paper provided a theoretical support for constructing the real estate market to be sustained and healthy development one.