The Study Of Small Business Credit Scoring Model Based On Survival Analysis

Although small businesses make great contribution to the economic development of our country, it is difficult to direct financing for their poor anti-risk ability and the not transparent information. Bank credit financing is still the main channel for the small businesses. In the practice of commercial bank credit, because of lack of reasonable and actionable auxiliary tool, banks always reluctant to lend and ration credit when they face the risk of small business credit business. Small businesses can not acquire the sustainable and abundant credit fund from the bank.The related research results at home and abroad shows that credit scoring analysis is a quantitative statistics method and an innovation for financial tools, which apply for the administration of small businesses in the bank and raise the efficiency of bank grant. What is more, the application plays a key role to improve the availability of small business loans, which have a significant to handle the problem of the financial obstruction for the small businesses.Based on existing research results, this paper compares the existing credit scoring models and introduces the survival analysis model to small business credit scoring. Comparing to the traditional methods, survival analysis can not only measure the customer’s credit score, but also predict the time of the default. Give the bank a control method before the credit audit and monitoring in the credit. According to the features of small businesses in our country, the paper establishes the credit scoring system including enterprise quality variables and enterprise financial variables. Set up small business credit scoring model based on cox proportional hazards model. Then it uses one of the small businesses loan dates to make empirical analysis and analysis the discriminant ability and early warning ability of the model. Finally, the application of small business credit scoring method supporting measures and suggestions are expounded in the paper. The result reveals that small businesses credit scoring relying on the Cox model can screening of the loan application effectively and has a good ability before the credit score and credit risk early warning.8picture,17table,58bibliography...