An Empirical Study On Contagion Effect And Its Incentives Of Financial Crises In Emerging Economies

Since the1990s, the growing emerging economies have been overwhelmed by the frequent financial crises and have suffered heavy losses. With the rapid development of the global economy and trade integration, the crises have showed unprecedented complexity and strong contagion effect. The traditional financial crisis theory faces a new challenge. Therefore, to grasp the nature of contagion and to reveal the major incentive is of great practical significance for the emerging economies.Firstly, the paper summarizes the existing literatures from which abstract the definition of financial crisis contagion and then analyze the contagion mechanism. Subsequently, the paper focuses two recent Asian emerging economies crisis (1997Asian financial crisis and2008Vietnam financial crisis), and use the VAR model to test dynamically whether the crises are infectious or not. The results show the contagion of the Asian financial crisis is much more significant than that of Vietnam financial crisis regardless of the contagious range or damage power, which is consistent with the real situation. With the method of stepwise regression model, selecting some indictors, the paper selects Asian financial crisis as sample to analyze the contagion incentives which provides basic theory for further research on the measures to prevent financial crisis contagion. The indictors include GDP growth, financial liberalization, inflation, current account status and financial account status.According to the theoretical and empirical analysis, the paper considers that in order to prevent contagion effect, the emerging economies need to strengthen international cooperation, to maintain their international balance of payments and to be cautious to open up their capital account. Combined with China’s current economic development situation, this paper put forward to specific policy recommendations from three aspects of how to prevent financial crisis contagion through trade, finance and the expectation.