Research On Information Content Of Listed Companies Earnings Forecasts And Its Economic Consequences

Problems of earnings forecast released by listed companies have been the focus of investors. In such a not very well-securities trading market environment in our country, the information content of earnings forecast for the investors’ decision-making is particularly important, true and reliable earnings forecast information can eliminate the existence of information asymmetry, and help investors make better decisions efficiently; false disclosure of information would mislead investors, leading to mistakes in making decision, having a bad impact on efficiency of market. Therefore, the information content and economic consequences (mainly marked by market reaction in the txt) of listed company’s earnings forecasts are popular with researchers.Because the information of earnings forecast has inherent predictability and uncertainty, how much capacity does the information content have? the specific economic consequences after disclosure—what is the reaction of market? the domestic researches are splendor but different with each other. In most cases in the previous researchers conduct respectively a study of IPO earnings forecast and the performance forecast of listed companies. Because of more stringent information requirements of the IPO companies in our country, research data are relatively standardized, relatively easy to collect, the majority of IPO companies have earnings forecast; but according to regulatory authorities’voluntary disclosure requirements about information of earnings forecast for listed companies, this lead to the disclosure of earnings forecast data of listed companies has heterogeneity, so there is relatively little research.This paper will not distinguish between these two types of companies, having selected the2011Shanghai A-share listed companies which have disclosed earnings forecast information as studying samples space, using event study method, and through the statistical description and test of significance, this paper made a unified research into condition of earnings forecast of sample companies; research taking earnings forecast type as the breakthrough point, reached that different types of earnings forecasts have significant information content and market reaction; and the market reaction of different types of forecast information have differences, the specific performance is that the reaction of the market for good news flatten out, but for bad news the market reaction tends to be intense, so it can also be understood as that the effectiveness of the market differs for different types of the earnings forecast information, by which this is the most outstanding performance of the economy consequences caused. At last, according to research findings and combining with the actual situation of China’s securities market, this paper brings policy recommendations which can fix earnings forecast disclosure system and improve the efficiency of the operation of the market.