| With the recent rapid rise of the Chinese economy as well as the enhancing international status, China’s economy has become an important member in the world’s economic stage, the changes of the RMB exchange rate affect the international economy’s nerves every time. Since the latter half of the1990s, China ’s products that exports to the United States are mainly focused on mechanical and electrical field and its proportion is rising, the United States has become a major export market of mechanical and electrical products for china. Compared with the labor-intensive products which previous dominate the China’s exports market, the quantity and the proportion of the mechanical and electrical products that China exports to the U.S. are far dominant than others. Mechanical and electrical products plays an important role in stimulating trade and economic growth, and it can absorb China’s surplus labor which is also important for employment and social stability.Mechanical and electrical products’competitiveness in the international market depends on the price and the technical level of the products in the importing countries, and the changes of exchange rate is an important factor to be reckoned with in price, generally,the exchange rate exert its influence on the price of the electromechanical products to affect export of electromechanical products in the exporting country. With the start of the exchange rate reform in2005, the RMB against the U.S. dollar generally showed a rising trend, this change is bound to bring some negative impact to the electromechanical products which china exports to the United States. Research focused on this aspect is significant to Chinese products which china exports to the United States and China ’s foreign trade and economic development.Firstly, this paper describes the change of the RMB exchange rate and its impacts after the period of reform and opening to the outside world.This paper includes the changes of the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate after the mid-1980s, the changes of RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate which affect the Chinese exports to the U.S.. Secondly, this paper introduce the development of the Chinese mechanical and electrical products trade. Including the development stage and status of China’s import and export of machinery and electronic products, the development status of Sino-US trade in electromechanical products after the RMB exchange rate reform. In the middle part of this paper, I collect data to build models which are used for Empirical Analysis. Then, I draw conclusions based on the data analysis results. The last part is revelations obtained from empirical research.In this paper, an approach which combines the theoretical and empirical study is used to do the qualitative and quantitative data analysis job. Qualitative research is used to understand the latest results of theoretical studies, then, the current results are to be analyzed and summarized to learn about the latest research dynamics in this field. By establishing econometric models, quantitative research uses statistical measurement tools, I choose the2005-2012Chinese mechanical and electrical products seasonal data that china exports to and imports from United States, the RMB against the dollar quarterly exchange rate data in the same period, the U.S. quarterly GDP and the Chinese quarterly GDP as research subjects. The main innovations of this paper lie in:I set up the models that includes the amount of Chinese electromechanical products which is exported to U.S.,and the amount of Chinese electromechanical products which are imported from U.S. Previous researches on Sino-US electromechanical products are limited to one model which only includes a net amount of export of electromechanical products,this model uses a net amount of electromechanical products that china exports to and imports from US as explanatory variable, the RMB exchange rate and U.S. GDP is used as Explanatory variable. The disadvantage of this model is that it is unable to clearly see how the changes of RMB exchange rate influence the amount of Chinese mechanical and electrical products which china exports to and imports from the United States respectively. In this paper, models that the amount of Chinese electromechanical products which is exported to U.S. and Chinese electromechanical products which are imported from U.S. are used respectively, making the influence of RMB exchange rate on these two aspects more intuitive. At the same time,I improve the analytical method, not only the long-term cointegration relationship between the variables but also the statistically causal relationship is be used, making the analysis of the relationship between variables more complete.Through empirical analysis, we draw the following five conclusions:First, a long-term stable relationship exists between the RMB exchange rate and the amount of Chinese domestic electrical products which are exported to the U.S.,and it is also exists between U.S. GDP and the amount of Chinese domestic electrical products which are exported to the U.S.. Second, a statistically significant causal relationship exists between the RMB exchange rate and the amount of electromechanical products which china exports to the U.S., and it is also exists between United States GDP and the amount of electromechanical products which china exports to the U.S. Third, the increases of the U.S. GDP is the main reasons of the increasing amount of Chinese electromechanical products which china exports to the U.S.. Fourth, a long-term stable relationship exists between the RMB exchange rate and the amount of electromechanical products which are imported from the U.S.,and it is also exists between china GDP and the amount of electromechanical products which are imported from the U.S.. Fifth, a statistically significant causal relationship exists between China’s domestic GDP and the amount of electromechanical products which are imported from the U.S. The aspect that the amount of electromechanical products which china exports to the United States:although the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a significant impact on the amount of electromechanical products which china exports to the United States, but the U.S. domestic demand is the main reason of the increasing amount of electromechanical products which china exports to the U.S.. The aspect that the amount of electromechanical products which china imports from the United States:The increasing China’s GDP can promote the amount of the machinery and electronic products which china imports from the United States. Hence a change in Sino-US trade surplus of machinery and electronic products requires the joint efforts of both sides, it is impractical just rely on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate to solve the surplus problem. Mechanical and electrical industry has become the core of manufacturing industry in our country, through the analysis of the influence that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate have on the amount of mechanical and electrical products trade between China and the United States, we can learn the main reason why the amount of mechanical and electrical products trade surplus exists between China and the United States.At the same time,we can get some enlightenments from the empirical studies of this paper-a lot of problems exist in China’s mechanical and electrical products industry at present, these problems may exist in other domestic industries extensively. With the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, how to deal with RMB appreciation test, this paper can also provide a valuable reference for these industries. |
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