Analysis Of The Impact Of The Export Commodity Structure On Transformation Of China’s Economic Development Pattern

Since2011, China’s economic growth rate has been slow down in fiveconsecutive quarters. Especially since the beginning of this year, the pressure of theeconomic slowdown is further increased, the market was filled with pessimisticestimates of China’s economic situation. It’s worth noting that with the "demographicbonus","resources dividend" failure as well as the "Lewis turning point", oureconomic development process will slow down. The main problems of China’seconomic development are overvaluing growth while disvaluing development andhigh growth was export-led. What’s more, the low-level export structure has broughtmany conflicts between high economic growth and economic development. Therefore,accelerating China’s economic development pattern conversion needs to optimizeexport commodity structure.On the basis of a large number of literatures, this thesis will analyze how theexport commodity structure affects the transformation of China’s economicdevelopment pattern, using a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly,we analyze the mechanism of the impact of the export commodity structure on thetransformation of China’s economic development pattern, applying the relevantknowledge of economics and international trade theory. Secondly, through a largenumber of charts, we analyze the evolution of China’s export commodity structureduring1985-2010, and comprehensively estimate the transformation degree ofChina’s economic development pattern, using principal component analysis.Empirical part, this thesis analyzes the relationship between the resource-intensiveexports, labor-intensive exports, capital and technology-intensive exports and thetransformation level index of China’s economic development pattern respectively,using the ADF test, co-integration test and Granger causality test, choosing the annualdata from1985to2010. Then we set up Vector Auto regression Model. It has fourvariables which are mentioned above. In this model, we analyze the response of thetransformation level index of China’s economic development pattern to the pulse ofresource-intensive exports, labor-intensive exports, capital and technology-intensiveexports by the Impulse Response Function. At last, we further test the contribution ofevery factor to the change of the transformation level index of China’s economicdevelopment pattern, including resource-intensive exports, labor-intensive exports,capital and technology-intensive exports by Variance Decomposition Test. The results have been listed below:1. During1985-2010, the proportion of theresource-intensive exports has been declining constantly, while the trend of the capitaland technology-intensive exports has just been the opposite, but the changingtendency of the labor-intensive exports has been increased firstly and then decreased;2. Although in1986,1993and2008, the transformation level of China’s economicdevelopment pattern appears more significant fluctuations, the overall transformationtrend of China’s economic development pattern is upward and toward the positivedirection.3. The response of the transformation level index of China’s economicdevelopment pattern to the pulse of capital-intensive exports presents a gradualupward trend and going to be steady eventually, while the other two variables are justthe opposite.Finally, according to the research findings, this thesis presented some appropriatecountermeasures which conclude: constructing the ladder type of export commoditystructure step by step; increasing the R&D investment and encouraging technologyinnovation; increasing the technological content of traditional export commodity andraise their added value; promoting positive interaction between export commoditystructure and domestic industry structure.