Stock Price Index Analysis And Prediction Based On Data Mining Technology

With the sustained economic development and the increasing wealth of the people, the people’s awareness of investment continue to be enhanced, the stock market has attracted many investors for the characteristics of high-risk high-yield, stock investment has become an important part of people’s lives. The nature of the stock is securities, the holders can get benefits, so the stock have a price, the price of the stock is determined by its intrinsic value, and the stock intrinsic value is determined by the present value of future stock gains. The price of the stock is affected by a number of factors such as economic, political, and psychological factors and the international situation, therefore, the price of the stock often deviated from the value. Basic analysis and technical analysis are the two main methods of stock analysis. Technical analysis is a method which analysis the trend of stock price changes according to the situation of the stock market or the trajectory of development in the past. According to the method of mathematics and logic, it summarized the typical behavior to predict the future stock market trend.The stock price index is an index which reflects fluctuations in the general price level, used to describe the overall market of the stock market. While the stock price index is also an important reference for trading stocks. It is an important aspect to determine the stock market trends, investors pay particular attention how the stock price index changes in the day or a period of time, in order to determine the timing of the sale. The level of the stock price index also marked the size of the investment risk. The higher the stock price index, the greater the risk investors face reinvestment. The stock market is a complex system, and the growing stock trading data which led establish model for the stock market to quantitative research is very difficult.However, stock prices forecast to remain attracted more and more attention and study.Data mining is a branch of artificial intelligence developed in the late1990s, integration of multiple disciplines and fields such as databases, artificial intelligence, visualization techniques and statistical techniques. Data mining is the process of extracting potential, the unknown and valuable information from a large number of incomplete, noise and fuzzy data. Often it is called knowledge discovery in data. Currently, data mining technology is widely used in the financial, retail, manufacturing, medical and other industries. The stock market produce large amounts of data every day, the data implied a lot of useful information, therefore, the use of data mining techniques to analyze stock market data, to explore the trend of the stock price, has a very great theoretical and practical significance.This paper use decision tree and neural network analysis and forecast of the stock index, the tool is sas9.1data is the Shanghai index of the second half of2012, indicators selected in this article is based on the K line chart data to calculate the K-line of the length of the candle, the closing price of the position, the10th MA and so on. The conclusions of this study is that the decision tree and neural network fit better on the stock index which we actually the investment has a certain referential significance.