Research On The Influence Factors Of Electricity Consumption And Demand Forecast In Sichuan Province

In recent years, with the sustainable and rapid development of the electricity power industry, the power supply capacity in our province can be significantly improved. As the scale of power greatly improved,, it reversed the most serious situation of the large-scale power shortage, made great contributions to the economic and social development and increased the living standards of the people. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the electricity demand in our province will continue to remain steady and rapid economic growth, but the electricity supply and demand situation will also be more severe, therefore, it is necessary to use electricity demand factors analysis and the establish a forecasting mechanism, guarantee the required power supply and demand balance, to avoid the inadequate supply of power resources because of loss or excessive construction of power grid.This paper first introduces the research background and the related essay summary, combing the status of electricity influence factor research achievement as well as the forecast of the power demand at home and abroad, combined with the actual situation and problems of domestic and Sichuan Province, proposes the research framework. Secondly, it summarizes the basic theory and method of electric power demand forecasting, prediction method, the statistical prediction methods and the forecasting of electricity demand, analyzes the characteristics and disadvantages of these methods, we have choosed the empirical analysis of cointegration method. Then, in combination with the present situation of Sichuan Province electric power supply and demand and a large number of actual data as the basis, we analyzes the influence factors of Sichuan province electricity demand and changeable characteristics of electricity, the electricity demand and economic development (GDP), the industrial structure (the proportion of the second industry), the relationship between population growth and the level of city and power consumption coefficient and other factors. Because of the economic time series is nonstationary, this paper use Johansen cointegration model and error correction model of ECM econometric model. Then, according to the model estimation results analysis of the contribution of each factors on electric power demand rate, and the model of sample period electricity consumption forecast, we get good prediction effect, and using the established model based on the forecast of each influence factor, we carries on the forecast electric power demand from2013to2015in Sichuan province. At last, according to the analysis of the previous chapters, in order to promote the development of Sichuan electric power, guarantee the power supply and demand balance and puts forward the optimization of industrial structure, accelerate the twelfth five-year development of electric power industry, to enhance awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction, improving the efficiency of energy use.The main achievements obtained from this paper:Based on the analysis of actual data and relevant theory,we chooses GDP, the secondary industry output value, the rate of population growth and city rate, power consumption coefficient as the explanatory variables, using cointegration model and error correction model ECM to analyze the electric quantity and the influence factors; according to the model estimation results effects of various factors on electric power demand analysis,the demand for electricity in Sichuan in future years was predicted; attention should be paid to Sichuan Electric Power Development in the near future, long-term strategy and construction problems.