Research On The Relationship Of Market-oriented Interest Rate And Economic Growth In China

In1973, McKinnon and Shaw pioneered the theory of financial development, and the traditional Keynesian control interest rate policy be questioned. To implement the market-oriented interest rates in the developing economic, let the interest rate to play a more proactive and flexible features in the mobilization of financial resources, and promote economic development function. Since1996, the interest rate market was officially launched in China. Until2011, the bonds and money market interest rate marketization has been realized. The "manage lower limit of loan interest rate and higher limit of interest rates" reform goals also have achieved. In March2012, the Development Research Center of the State Council and the World Bank jointly issued the <2030China:building a modern, harmonious, creative high-income society>. This report pointed out that one of the priorities of the future financial reform is market-oriented interest rate reform which based on principle of the market.The research of the interest rate growth mechanism and the practice the trespassing change reveal that the interest rates should not be market-oriented for market-oriented. Firstly, analysis of the interest rate factor in the classic theory of economic growth (Harrod-Domar model, Solow-Swan model and the AK model), and make clear the role of interest rates role in the transmission mechanism of economic growth. Secondly, indicate that the interest rate market though changing the savings rate, savings-investment in the conversion rate and the capital-output ratio of a catalytic role contributed the growth of the real economy based on the improved Harrod-Domar model. We put the one year deposit interest rate as the representative of the non-market interest and validates economic growth is not sensitive to interest rate changes under the condition of non-market interest rates. At the same time, a typical dual economy that State-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises coexist in china hindered the transmission mechanism of interest rate to promote economic growth. Then we make interbank lending interest rates of2002-2012years as the represent of market-oriented interest rate, to verify the relationship between economic growth and market-oriented interest rate though cointegration test and Granger causality test.Having anslysised the special case in our country, I have reason to believe that, compared with non-market interest rates, and increase the number of investments while improving the efficiency of investment, and promote the improvement of the average productivity of the whole society. However, in China, the market-oriented interest rate reform of should match the reform of state-owned enterprises, so that market-oriented interest can play a greater role in the economic growth.