| Summary this paper sets out the money supply and the money supply structure on the macro-economic impact, analysis of correspond to the structural changes and the phenomenon of inflation of the money supply, to studies on to structural changes in money supply feasibility and reliability of the forecast trend rate of inflation, to advance the development and implementation of the Central Bank monetary policy provide a reference.Through empirical analysis and data model analysis method to M1M2scissors with the rate of inflation (CPI) validated the correlation demonstrated that:1,The money supply and inflation are closely correlated, but the money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy of the gradual decline in the role.2, Review the history, demonstrates that monetary supply structure changes and inflation rate changes, especially the change trend of periodic has obvious relationship between before and after.3, Through the analysis of the impact of monetary policy change on the money supply structure, found that the structure of money supply change reflects the objective changes in economic operation, to a certain extent, is a "spontaneous behavior" of the market.4, Through the empirical analysis, proved that M1M2scissors and CPI have clos correlation, the two have a long-term equilibrium relationship, with linear regression method is verified. The M1M2index of long-term impact on CPI, decided it could provide early warning signals were malignant inflation or deflation, monetary policy for the creation of the time of early intervention.The significance of this research lies in, through the theoretical analysis and the data argument, M1M2scissors index can be used as a leading indicator to predict inflation trends, the trend closely and monitoring M1M2scissors, can advance to predict the future trend of prices, the direction and strength to adjust monetary policy improving the central bank to reverse cycle macro-control behavior. |
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