The Research On The Influence Of Macro-Control Policies In Real Estate Industry Over Urban Land Market Price

Since the reform and opening up, the real estate industry is developing rapidly.It has become become a pillar industry of our economy. The healthy development of the real estate market contributes to increasing the financial revenue, raising the speed of economic development, and improving the living conditions of residents. Government departments have published a series of macro-control policies to stabize real estate prices aiming at the existing problems of the real estate market from2003. Macro-control policies have a far-reaching affect on real estate market and land market in China. Therefore, the research on the influence of macro-control policies over urban land market price has important significance.This dissertation will adopts the methods Theoretical and empirical analysis to analyze the effect of macro-control policies to urban land market price from the angles of land policy, monetary policy and tax policy. In the theoretical analysis part, firstly, this dissertation introduces the tools of macro-control policies over real estate market and reviews these policies in recent years. Then we analyzes the mechanism of the influence of macro-control policies to land market price, including land policy, monetary policy and tax policy.In the empirical research part, this dissertation analyzes the effect of macro-control policies to urban land market price from two aspects. Firstly, the auther analyze the relationship of the supply of land, interest rate, money supply, deposit-reserve ratio and land market price using correlation test, ADF test, Ciontegration test and Granger causality tests. Then we analyze the dynamic influence of the supply of land, interest rate, money supply and deposit-reserve ratio over land market price through the establishment of VAR model, variance decomposition and impulse response function. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, the main conclusions of this dissertation are:the influence of macro-control policies on urban land market price is different; the influence of macro-control policies on urban land market price has a time-lag effect; the influence of macro-control policies on urban land market price has periodicity.Finally, according to the empirical conclusions, this dissertation put forward the policy suggestions:firstly, the macro-control policies should rely mainly on credit policy while using land policy, interest rate policy and tax policy; secondly, improving macro-control policies prospective and shortening internal delay of macro-control policies; finally, trengthening the organic cooperation between macro-control policies.