The Research Of The Choice Of Intermediate Target Of Monetary Policy In China

Intermediate targetof monetary policy is a finance variablebetween Operating goals and finalgoals.It is guatanteeto realize the policy goal.Anefficient monetary policy operation frameworkand a correct choice of intermediate targetof monetary policy are of vital importanceSince the founding in1949, China has experiencing the history of "cash injection", the creditscale and quantitative indicators of money supply as an intermediate target of monetary policy.Since1998, the implementation of quantitative indicators as an intermediate target ofmonetary policy has its sixteenth year. The money supply target middle-scale changes in creditconditions cannot be accurately controlled and play a role in allocating. The use of an intermediatetarget of monetary policy chosen three important criteria-controllable, measurable, relevantmoney supply intermediate target of monetary policy with this qualitative analysis and the resultsis endogenous money supply associated with the weakening of the money supply and the ultimategoal of monetary policy, bringing reduced the money supply and economic relationship betweenthe development of the capital market, the more open the economy caused by the lack of stabilitycaused by the correlation weakening correlation，Uncertainty in the velocity of money, the moneysupply statistics testability problems lead to less measurable. Base money is difficult to control,endogenous enhancement. The central bank cannot fully control the instability money multiplierreduced correlation. Comparatively speaking, because of the people’s Bank of China legal interestrates remain a powerful control makes the good control ability, easy observing of market interestrate, the level and structure of market interest rate clearly to see that its testability is good,although not realized interest rate marketization. But in the near future, the marketization ofinterest rate will make the interest rate as the intermediate target of monetary policy relevance willget better and better.This paper uses the method of combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and usingthe correlation analysis of statistical analysis method, the quantity and price analyzed statisticallychange and relational degree trend. For trend analysis to see intermediate type intermediatevariables and price variables is superior or inferior to a greater degree index. To sum up, enhancethe two-year lagged benchmark rates and consumer price index growth X3Y4negative correlation.Through test and analysis, a benchmark interest rate x2and GDP statistical trend had no obviouschange,two years behind the X3benchmark interest rate and the total fixed asset investmentgrowth trend of maintaining a strong correlation between Y2levels, the benchmark interest rateX3and consumer goods retail sales growth lagged two years Y3negative correlation betweenlagged two years rise, enhanced the benchmark interest rate X3and resident consumption priceindex growth Y4negative correlation.Correlation between national economy visible price indexand China’s interest rate after1998is quite significant.interest rates show good correlation and thecorrelation trend, the future can be used as intermediate target new monetary policy, so as toreplace the money supply.