Study On The Liner Freight Rate In China-Japan Route Based On State Space

Transportion of goods between China and Japan mainly through Maritime transport channel between China and Japan. With the increasing of Sino-Japanese trade volume and the improvement commodity structure,the container suitable cargo also increased accordingly,China-Japan route become a "golden route". However in2003years, China-Japan route appeared "zero freight" or even "negative freight". Although the freight soon returned to normal, but freight in China-Japan route enters a period of volatility,when the shipping market in good situation, freight could reach normal;On the contrary,freight could reach "zero freight". In addition,there is no obvious regularity in the freight fluctuation. The fluctuation freight in China-Japan route makes the shipping company’ business decisions blind,and increased the difficulty of the relevant departments’market supervision. In order to study the fluctuation regular of freight rate in China-Japan route,stable shipping market,this article analyze the factors of freight rate fluctuation in domestic shipping market supply and demand aspects,using the state space model to explore the various factors’influence intensity.State space model is a dynamic time domain method,which often used to estimate unobserved variables (state variables),while these unobserved variables reflect the main variation of the system. Sino-Japanese container freight index reflects the container freight volatility in China-Japan route. This article selects108months Sino-Japanese container freight index from January2005to December2013as a sequence,breaking it down into trend cycle factors, seasonal change factors and irregular factors,using state space model represents the sequence,then using strong recursive tools-kalman filter to estimate and forecast. Finally making deep analysis to the factors of freight rate fluctuation in China-Japan route,which provide scientific basis for the decision of shipping enterprises.