The Trend Analysis Of Cotton Price

Cotton occupies a vital role in China’s national economy, and it is also planted as animportant crop in many countries. It is one of the main raw materials of textile industry,besides, cotton seed can also be used to crush oil, extract cottonseed protein and othersubstances. In addition to the above application.Because cotton prices influence the interests of tens of millions of farmers and a largenumber of enterprises across the country, it is very important to prevent large fluctuationsin cotton prices and have the ability to reasonably predict the price of cotton. This will helpto guarantee the normal operation of enterprises and protect the interests of a large numberof farmers.There are many aspects affect the price of cotton, which can be roughly divided into macro,cotton supply and demand and the relevant markets. In this paper, we firstly give a briefintroduction of cotton. Then we derive the various indicators which affect the cotton pricesin consideration of all aspects of the cotton industry chain. At last, we find out therelationship between the variables using multiple linear regression model, and obtainmodel parameters through stepwise regression model. In addition, in this paper, we alsopredict the price of cotton using the GARCH model to conduct a time series analysis of thehistory of cotton prices.In conclusion, prediction of cotton priceshas certain reference meaning for the marketthrough the above two methods.