| In recent years, with the rapid development of Chinese economy, Chinese real estate market is developing rapidly, the transaction of commercial housing market becomes active in different regions, and commercial housing transaction continues to rise. The real estate industry is a capital intensive industry, while the financial market is the main place of financing, which makes the development of the real estate market and the financial market more closely linked. In China, the marketization degree of capital is lower, financial institutions are still the main body of financial market, therefore, the real estate market capital mainly comes from financial institutions. At the same time, the blind investment makes much bubbles in the real estate market. Therefore, fluctuations of the real estate market price will affect the loan quality of financial institutions and make the financial institutions face the increasing financial risks, it will affect the regional financial stability status.This paper takes Gansu as the research object, chooses the time data of2002-2011as the sample, based on the theoretical analysis and the description of present status, it introduces the Regional Financial Soundness Indicators, uses entropy method to calculate the financial stability of the comprehensive index of Gansu province form2002to2011, and establishes the VAR model. Then it uses empirical analysis on the measurement of the influence of Gansu Province real estate price fluctuations on the regional financial stability, and draws the following conclusions.Firstly, since2002, the real estate sales area is increasing steadily, and the real estate sales price is rising constantly. The outbreak of SARS in2003and the global financial crisis in2008caused the real estate market of Gansu province a brief depression, and made real estate sales area and sales prices a certain fluctuations. But under the guidance of policies in succession, the fluctuation was relatively small, and real estate prices showed a steady upward trend as a whole.Secondly, during the period of2002and2011, the regional financial stability conditions of Gansu province are gradually changed for the better. The relevant indicators of regional financial stability index system developed well, to further enhance the regional financial stability contribution. The macro economic situation, the asset-liability ratio of enterprises and the disposable income of urban residents occupy a larger proportion in the regional financial stability index system, so the impact on regional financial stability is more significant.Thirdly, Gansu real estate price fluctuations have negative effects on the regional financial stability. The real estate price fluctuation is bigger, and it will reduce the regional financial stability, on the contrary, the price fluctuation of real estate is more stable, and the status of regional financial stability is better. Also, the effect of real estate price fluctuation on the regional financial stability has a certain lag, if the lag period of real estate price fluctuations is shorter, it has more obvious influence on the regional financial stability, if the lag period of real estate price fluctuations is longer, it has less influence on the regional financial stability.Finally, from the perspective, the regulation of real estate market, to broaden the financing channels, to improve their financial risk prevention awareness, improve the regional financial stability system, and put forward the relevant policy recommendations. |
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