| Industrial park is the main carrier of the development of regional economy. After many years of extensive development, lots of industrial parks are confronted with severe environmental problems. Gansu province belongs to the first group of industrial provinces since the reform and opening up. At present, it has35national and provincial parks, all of which have the characteristics of low level of resource utilization and high level of environmental pollution in the process of development. And it’s largely because of the short development history of China’s industrial park and immature operating mechanism and industry relativity. In light of this situation, this paper studies the future development direction of industrial parks in Gansu province on the basis of the parks’ development status at home and abroad from the theoretical level to the empirical level. The specific contents and conclusions are as follows:1) According to the recycling economy theory and system dynamics theory, this paper analyzes the industrial parks in Gansu province systematically in terms of their main characteristics, divide them into economic, demographic and environmental three subsystems and elaborates the relationship between the various subsystems. This indicates that industrial park is a complex system and the operation of three subsystems are interrelated.2) Through the analysis of the main characteristics of three subsystems, this paper elects61variables, constructs35equations and eventually establishes the system dynamics model of industrial parks in Gansu province which has been verified. This indicates that the model established in this paper is feasible and applicable.3) Taking the representative Yumen economic development zone as an example, this paper simulates and predicts its development. Therefore, this paper presents11different regulation schemes and analyzes the gross industrial product of the parks, the added value of gross industrial product, the storage volume of solid waste, the total waste water, the stock of COD in waste water and the changing trend of the stock of SO2in the atmosphere. In accordance with the changing trend of these variables in value, two regulation schemes are set up for the recent and long-term development of Yumen economic development zone. The research conducted in this paper is based on the reality of the current development situation of industrial park in Gansu province. The system dynamics model established in this paper is of universal practicability. The empirical analysis of Yumen economic development zone can not only regulates it’s future development patterns but also provides the support in theory and practice for the sustainable development of other industrial parks in Gansu province. |
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