Construction Of The Source-to-Effect Model And Health Risk Assessment About Heavy Metal Lead

Background:With the industrialization and urbanization process accelerated, heavy metal pollution has throughout all over the world. In recent years, heavy metal pollution incidents have an upward trend, in particular the "lead" poisoning. There is a serious threat to environmental safety and public health. For the health risk assessment that has consequences is difficult to meet the needs of health risk prevention of heavy metals lead, which should control and prevention the lead emissions from the sources, reasonably planning and designing layout, to solve the lead pollution.Objectives:The paper aims at building the lead Source-to-Effect models, pre-assessing the concentration of atmosphere and soil density surrounding the lead emission sources and the spatial distribution of health risk, and predicting the child’s blood lead level. According to the results of sensitivity analysis, the designation of health risk protection zone of lead emission sources was discussed by adding status values.Method:Source-to-Effect coupled model has been built based on the atmospheric diffusion model, soil cumulative model and exposed, individual risk assessment model, and children blood lead forecast model.According to the parameters of lead emission sources and terrain, and meteorological conditions, simulated the migration process of heavy metal lead. Considering individual through air inhalation, skin contact, soil and food intake, we assessed effects on residents health risk of lead emission sources on regional level. Using Monte Carlo simulation, solved the uncertainties of evaluation of health risk assessment model parameters using the probability distribution function (PDF). Through practical case verified adaptability and practicability of model and fitting parameters.Conclusions:The case study results revealed that lead exposure risk to local residents contributed less than 10% after the smelter operates, contribution of health risks at each grid point value is far less than 1 which is the standard limits of non-cancer risk. While due to the high background concentrations, after overlay status value, there is a risk of lead exposure among the population. According to the sensitivity analysis results determined sensitivity factors that has important effects, designated health risk protection zone of smelter into two scenarios on the basis of these sensitivity factors. integrated the results of atmospheric environment, and health protective zone and distance provided from access conditions, draws outsourcing envelopes, which as protective regional of health risk, and takes most far distance as health risk protection distance, health risk protection distance of scenario one is 4000m, health risk protection distance of scenario two is 1500m.