Research On The Intensity Of Emission Reduction Under The Background Of Carbon Trading

China has set pollutant emissions reduction as development constraint goal,and sets targets at each stage. From the closing of the pollution enterprises to the support of green technology, they reflected the carbon emissions control in our country’s responsibility and determination. Carbon trading system can not only realize our country’s carbon emissions control target, but also make full use of the role of market in resource allocation.The system has become the development direction of environmental system.Economic development should not only keep the total growth, but also should take the quality of economic.If we can find the reducation emissions intensity that can keep the economy growth with promoting the economic quality,we can achieve the goal of win-win in economic development and environmental protection.This paper uses carbon trading potential output,namely the maximum output capacity under the emissions trading,and total factor productivity index to respectively depict the total economic output and quality of economic development. Through the study of potential output and total factor productivity under different intensity of emission reduction, the paper wants to find the consistency emissions intensity interval range of potential output and total factor productivity, namely the proper range.In the interval range,the increasing of the intensity of emission reduction will not reduce potential output and total factor productivity index,and can realize the target of win-win situation in emission reduction,economic aggregate and economic quality.Assuming that in the case of emission trading can go effectively, by setting different emission intensity,data envelopment analysis is adopted in this paper to simulate the potential output under different intensity of emission reduction.Then by constructing green total factor productivity considering unfavorable output,it can analyze total factor productivity under different intensity of emission reduction.By comparing the potential output and total factor productivity index, the paper finds the consistency intensity of emission reduction in potential output and total factor productivity. Based on the 30 province datas from 2000 to 2013, the paper uses the provincial input-output data to carry on the empirical analysis.Investment includes labor, capital and energy consumption.Desirable output is GDP. Unfavorable output is carbon dioxide emissions.Through analysis, the paper finds that the intensity of emission reduction has different impacts on regional potential output.The overall performance for emissions intensity is that potential output does not change with low intensity of emission reduction, but for high emissions intensity, potential output decreases with the increasing of the intensity of emission reduction.The intensity of emission reduction impacts on productivity differently from region to region.But the overall performance is that index goes with the going of low intensity.When the emission intensity is high, total factor productivity index decreases with the increasing of the intensity of emission reduction.By comparing the emission intensity impacts on potential output and total factor productivity index, the paper finds consistency emission intensity range of potential output and total factor productivity, namely the proper range.When the intensity of emission reduction is in 0% to 4.86%, the impact of emission intensity has consistency.In the interval range, the increasing emissions intensity won’t inhibit neither potential output, nor the total factor productivity.