Study On The Prediction And Optimization Model Of Coal Product Structure

In recent years, due to the influence of slowdown in national economic growth,the adjustment of industrial structure and the implementation of energy saving and environmental protection strategy, the coal industry is facing increasing tough economic situation. On the one hand, the decline of coal price and rise of coal preparation cost cause a tremendously negative influence on the profitability of coal enterprises. How to make marketable products and create more economic benefits in a difficult market environment becomes a critical issue facing the coal companies. On the other hand, as the optimization of coal products structure is affected by many factors, there has not yet formed a comparatively perfect theory. Although a few enterprises have developed relevant software which just concentrates on some specific optimization aspects, it cannot be transplanted to other plants. Therefore, an effective way to improve the utilization rate of the current coal resources and the economic benefits of coal enterprises is to develop the mathematical model of coal product structure and make advance planning, forecasting for Product processing scheme of coal enterprises.Firstly, washability curve is fitted with the related quality data of raw coal, which is a means of analysis of coal washability, determining the theoretical process index of gravity separation and calculating the efficiency of quantity and quality. The separation system models are built with the system check or single machine check data and provide basic support for the prediction and optimization of the separation process. The Differential Evolution algorithm has been induced for multi-parameter optimization calculation of the curve fitting process, then the parameters’ value of related mathematical model are obtained at the minimum fitting error. On the basis of the original distribution curve model, Looking for other new and better applicability “S” type curve mathematical model. The optimization calculation of different curve mathematical models is carried out by compiling MATLAB program. The mathematical model of the minimum fitting error is chosen as the optimum fitting mathematical model of the distribution curve.Secondly, based on the curve fitting, in order to make the prediction model more suitable for the majority of coal preparation plant and improve the universality of the model, the prediction model of washing products was constructed for each process system of coal preparation plant. According to the specific forecast target and specific separation process, the prediction model of each separation process is chosen to forecast the final product structure of whole coal preparation plant. In this paper, the product structure of three-product dense medium cyclone is predicted based on the mathematical model of product structure prediction by using 20 group single machine check data. Compared with its actual sorting results, it can be known that the prediction error of this product structure prediction models is small, and the accuracy is higher, which has guiding significance for the actual production. By applying different interpolation methods to refine the float-sink data of feed to different density levels, the effect of density level on the accuracy of the prediction results and the efficiency of the program is analyzed.In addition, to forecast and optimize the product structure of coal enterprises with the goal of maximum economic benefit. Under the established separation process conditions, both the optimal separation process parameters and product structure are obtained, and then to calculate the maximum economic benefits. Meanwhile, the maximum economic benefits of different production methods are analyzed and calculated, and then the optimum production process is determined. The effect of primary product moisture on the final product yield is specially considered in the optimization model of Product structure, and then its influence on the final economic benefits has been discussed.At last, in this paper a mathematical model is established for the sales of the products of the coal enterprises. The main aim is to do research on the proportion of mixing different primary products under different constraint conditions at the object of maximum economic benefit, as a result providing scientific basis and suggestion for the coal preparation plants how to sell the primary products.