The Traffic Operational Status Evaluation And Prediction Based On The License Plate Tracking

The accurate/real-time evaluation and prediction of urban road traffic state, is thefoundation to grasp accurate behaviors of urban road traffic system, and make scientificdecisions of traffic management. How to quantitatively describe the traffic state, and how toevaluate and forecast the traffic state in multi-hierarchy for traffic participants, have been thedifficulty and emphasis in the field of transportation research. Moreover, the study of thoseproblems is of great theoretical and practical significance.Based on actual traffic management and the analysis of city road traffic flowcharacteristics, a complete and general traffic condition evaluation and prediction system hasbeen built. The main innovative work of this paper is specifically summarized as follows:This paper defines the traffic travel index of three level including road unit, OD path and thenetwork as the evaluation index system of city traffic condition, and analyzes the evaluationunit, the update step and state division standard. This paper studies the analytical process oflicense plate data, designs a travel time anomaly data filtering method based on the timesequence and data pane, and designs the main database. This paper proposes a combinationmodel to forecast the short-term traffic parameters based on analysis of characteristics andimpact factors. The model is validated by the measured traffic flow data, and the results showthat the model has good precision and adaptability. The paper improves the traffic incidentearly warning method based on prediction error. A step of judging the prediction error valuesymbol of target road unit and downstream link unit is added to improve the accuracy oftraffic incident detection. The analytical process of license plate data and the assessmentprocess of real-time traffic state are demonstrated.Through the analysis of measured data and VISSIM simulation data demonstrate theeffectiveness evaluation of city traffic condition evaluation and prediction system of the paper,which provides ideas for the follow-up researches.