Dynamic Simulation Research On The Service Level Of Urban Public Transport Base On System Dynamics

As the subsystem of the social economy system, the public transport system plays an important role insocial progress and economic development. With the development of economy and the continuousimprovement of residents’ income level, higher requirements for the service level of public transport havebeen made. In order to meet the travel needs of urban residents, to cope with the competition againstindividual traffic, and to enhance the attraction of public transport, the service level of public transportationmust be raised.Based on the theory of public traffic service quality and passenger satisfaction, applying the basictheory, the principle and method of system dynamics, and combined with qualitative and quantitativemethods, the thesis researches the structure and behaviors of public traffic dynamic system. Hence,dynamics model of service level of the common public transport is established.First of all, on the basis of related theory the thesis analyzes of the internal and external factors whichinfluences the level of public transport services, public transportation service level indicators and thecorresponding weights from the standpoint of system. Then it determines the problem and the boundary ofthe system, the interactive relationship between the elements of public transport service level and causalityand causal feedback, and draws flow diagram of system dynamics model for the public transportationservice level.Secondly, taking Beijing for example, according to the existing data and statistics, the thesis makesparameter estimation and SD equation, using the simulation software VENSIM output value of the keyvariables, verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the model and predicts the future development trendof public traffic service level. Through the simulation results under different policies analysis it rankspolicy options. To improve the level of public transport services, according to alternative the correspondingpolicy recommendations are put forward for urban transportation decision-making institution...