Research On The Relationship Of The Grid GIC And Interplanetary Disturbances

Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) will affect the safe operation of power grid. We can effectively prevent the dangers of GIC on power grid, If we can predict GIC in advance. Interplanetary disturbances is the space weather drive sources of GIC. Knowing the relationship of interplanetary disturbances and GIC is the key to solve the GIC forecast. According to the subject, main research contents and methods of this article are as follows:(1) In combination with space physics, we got the mechanism diagram of GIC. Considering the characteristics of grid and existing examples, we thought that suffer from the risk of GIC will further increase with the increasing scale of power grid. It is necessary to research on the forecast of GIC.(2) Using the data of Finnish and ACE satellite, we researched the relationship of the grid GIC amplitude and interplanetary disturbances, analyzed the Sources of interplanetary of GIC events, calculated the time relationship of GIC and interplanetary disturbances. Getting the model of relationship time between GIC and interplanetary disturbances.(3) Using the monitoring data of power grid GIC in our country, we studied the relationship between the grid GIC in our country and the interplanetary disturbances. Using the geomagnetic data of Zhaoqing geomagnetic observatory, we calculated the relationship between the rate of change of earth’s magnetic field and grid GIC in our country, got the mathematical model of the rate of change of earth’s magnetic field and grid GIC.(4) Introducing the fuzzy mathematical model into the prediction of GIC. Using clustering analysis and closeness method to predict the strength type of GIC, with the interplanetary disturbance parameters as input indicators. Analytic hierarchy process (ahp) was used to determine the index weight. The results showed good prediction accuracy.(5) Using the radial basis (RBF) neural network model to forecast the GIC amplitude, with getting the interplanetary disturbance parameters as the input data of RBF model. This paper proposes a completion method of spatial data. Using MATLAB software to realize the forecast process of programming. The results of simulation shown that:This method could get satisfactory effect in GIC prediction and has extensive application prospect in power grid disaster prevention.