Research On Short-term Load Forecasting In An Area In Liaoning Province

With the rapid development of our country strong smart grid and the regionalelectric power market gradually established which become perfect, the competitionbetween electric power enterprises is increasingly fierce, so the problem of benefitbecomes the focus of the electric power enterprise. The power load forecastingbecome the hotspot in research of power system, especially the short-term loadforecasting, which often can relatively accurately predict the power load change in thenext few hours or a few days of large power grid or regional electric power system, inorder to determine the fuel supply plan and improve economic efficiency of powersupply department, which has important significance.At first, this paper expounds the principle and its advantages and disadvantagesof the different methods of load forecasting. Combining the characteristics of the loadin Liaoning province and considering I have a lot of load historical data of LiaoningTieling area, under the guidance of tutor, choose the load classification method ofindividual projections for Liaoning Tieling area power load, which is then obtainedtotal load by the method of fixed sum.The load of every region is constituted by different types of users, and indifferent areas the proportion of electricity users is different. Combined with theactual situation of Liaoning Tieling area, the total load is divided into three shiftscontinuous production type load, daily production-night rest type load, the types ofbusiness load, electrified railway load, seasonal agricultural load, residentialelectricity load, and other types of load. On this basis, based on time series method isused respectively to different types of load forecast, and then obtain total load forecastusing the method of fixed sum.Finally method put forward is used for the load forecasting of the LiaoningTieling area prediction and the result of the forecast was compared with the actualload, which confirm the feasibility of this method.