Risk Assessment Study On Power System Dispatching And Its Application

Risk theory could consider both the probabilistic and resulted influence ofuncertainty, thus it has been widely utilized in many power system applications.Nowadays, risk assessment in power planning stage only can evaluate power systemdesigning scheme and risk assessment in power operation stage can only evaluateunstable risk. They both do not consider the process of the dispatching actions, whichhas important influence to the system stability. Aim of this thesis is to develop amethod to introduce risk analysis to evaluate the dispatching operation process ofpower system and to help system operators doing better. Major work of this thesis isas follows:1. Risk of events was deeply discussed with considering the sources of theuncertainties. Completeness of the system risk was also analyzed, which was helpfulto construct the property risk index for dispatching assessment.2. Based on the requirement of some practical dispatching and control centers,some risk indexes were proposed. Some indexes were suitable for single device, someones were suitable for dispatching process, and some were suitable for the wholesystem. The corresponding calculation methods were also given.3. A risk assessment system for grid dispatching operation was designed anddeveloped for Guangdong power company based on EMS/SCADA and dispatchingcommand system. Applied experience revealed that the designed system wassuccessful. And, it could help the operators to properly evaluate and reduce thepossible risk in the system operation.4. The achievement has been practically utilized in Guangdong power companywhich obtains the pre-set expectations.