Research On Forecasting Technological Development Paths Based On SAO Structure Analysis

How to quickly identify and predict the path of technological development has becomethe focus of research academia. Technology roadmap as a tool for technical developmentpath identification and prediction has been generally recognized, but traditional methodsrely on too much expert studies and although some bibliometrics methods ha ve beenintroduced in, but not yet get a significant success on how to understand semantic relationsbetween keywords.The paper based on the weakness, according to SAO (Subject-Action-Object)structural analysis and Technology Development Path theory, proposed a new TechnologyDevelopment Path Predicting method based on the SAO structured analysis.Firstly, We need to extract SAO structures from the scientific literature by using thetext mining tools, then divide the key words of the SAO structured chain into threedimensions: materials, technology and components and affection, and build the SAOstructured chain.Secondly, according the traditional Technology Development PathMethod—Technology Roadmap, construct model of “Subject(Noun)-Action(Verb)-Object(Verb-object phrase or short sentences)”based on the infectionand relation between the materials, technology and components and the effect,then add thetimeline to this model so as that we can describe the roadmap by the S/AO phrases andSAO chain. At last, Applying this method into the field of dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC)as the empirical studyand thenpredict the DSSC’s technologydevelopment directionaboutthe question “how to improve the conversion effect” and “how to reduce cost”.This method based on the analysis of the structure of SAO can make up for thedeficiency existing in traditional technology development path prediction analysis method,in some degree, which can help to develop the technology develop path prediction analysismethod. At the same time the conclusion of DSSCs technology development pathprediction analysis, not only can verify the validity of the method, also can provide areference for DSSCs technical planning.