Study On The Consequence Of The Transport Network Under Terrorist Attack

The terrorists attacks occurred on the ground could have a influence on the road network traffic. To quantify the effects of terrorist attacks on road network traffic consequences has important meaning to comprehensive evaluate the consequences and enhance the emergency response ability of the terrorist attacks. This paper study effects of terrorist attacks on network traffic by constructing the network model, the main research contents are as follows:First, this paper analysis the specific situation, establishing road network model, and define the parameters of the model.The terrorist attacks will cause great psychological pressure and panic to the residents, when the attack happens; residents in the traffic network have a high demand level for safety. In order to reflect this characteristic, it has to quantify the danger degree of the section under terrorist attacks. This paper defines the degree of threat by terrorist attacks in the section to the road danger degree. And take the explosion as an example, gives the calculation method o fro ad danger degree. And select the threshold, determining the failure sections directly caused by terrorist attacks.The traffic network is a network with loads, in studying the influence caused by the accident, the redistribution must be considered. According to whether the traveler know the information of the failure sections. The terrorist attacks will be divided into two stages:the outbreak period and stable period And the flow redistribution strategy in the two periods are given.The terrorist attacks will result the traffic network in two ways:the change of the topology of road network and the change of operation state. This paper selects the topology index and status index, to quantify the influence of terrorist attacks. And use AHP to determine the weight of each index.Based on the above idea, this paper constructs the mathematical model to evaluate the consequences of the traffic network under terrorist attacks through the example analysis, verify the feasibility of the model and algorithm design. The case analysis shows that In the stable stage of terrorist attacks, it was less affected by the outbreak stage. So after the terrorists attack, the government should release the information of the damaged sections as soon as possible.and Get into the stable period as soon as possible.