Consider The Development Of Urbanization Of Rural Power Types Of Load Effects Cointegration Analysis And Forecasting

The urbanization rate is a measure to judge whether this country is developed or not.In recently years, China becomes more and more powerful, the economic becomes more and more developed, the society becomes more and more communicated. Many countries turn to cities in recently years. The development of urbanization is at the expense of the plenty of energy consumption, especially electrical energy. The equipment of rural power grid built about at least twenty years ago, the line had been laid coarse. The faster the countries move into cities, the more load it is bound to be increasing. And the net loss must be increasing badly so that cause a waste of electricity. In-depth study of urbanization development has far-reaching rural electric load relationship.This Paper introduces the research background and current status of the development of urbanization, as well as research applications load characteristics cointegration theory. Describes the proportion of the population index method so that calculate the level of urbanization law and common level of urbanization by using predictive models. Make a detailed description of the current developments and key indicators of the rural power grid load characteristics of rural power grids. The level of urbanization and rural loads are time-series change over time, not stationary direct sequence analysis using auto-regressive moving average (ARMA regression model) analysis. it is easy to form a pseudo-regression which showed no practical significance. By ADF unit root test method for the level of urbanization and rural power load of the main sequence of four stationary test, the results are non- stationary time series. After a first difference, it has a smooth non-stationary series.Although ARMA regression model can not be applied, the co-integration model is to meet the conditions. Both models will incorporate cointegration analysis, and sequence checking by residual smooth cointegration model verify the correctness of the model. On the level of urbanization and rural power load of total electricity consumption and annual maximum load of Granger causality test analysis, the causal relationship statistically, that the level of urbanization of the total electricity consumption and annual Granger cause of the maximum load. Econometrics model is applied to predict the level of urbanization according to its co-integration relationship forecast the 2040 annual electricity consumption of various types of load cases and annual maximum load.In this paper, An example of a rural Hunan data is made to simulate the operations. The results show that the level of urbanization and rural power grid load data have a causal relationship. According to the degree of urbanization development, the degree to which various types of load demand in rural areas generally provide a strong basis for the transformation of rural power grids.