Applied Study Of Interval Analysis Method On Dam Safety Early-warning

As an important infrastructure, the dam plays a fundamental role in irrigation, watersupply, flood protection, power generation, shipping and ecological environmentimprovement, which firmly guarantees the increase of economy and living standards ofpeople. The huge risk exists, however, and that may bring us catastrophic disasters.Therefore, people are highly concerned with the safety of the dam, and the safety,including supervisory control, evaluation and early-warning, is vital in the management ofa dam. Based on such consideration, this paper focuses on the early-warning of a dam, withthe method of interval analysis. This work was supported by the project of "The technicalresearch of safety evaluation and emergency handling of a dam during continuous heavyrain" from science and technology department of Jiangxi Province, and the project of "Theresearch of risk analysis and early-warning of a dam in middle-small rivers" from waterresources department of Jiangxi Province.The followings are the main aspects of the research based on interval analysis:(1) Building the deformation forecast model of the dam. We considered the intervalcharacteristics of water pressure, temperature and effective time which mainly affect thedeformation of the dam. Then we built the deformation forecast model on the ground ofinterval analysis, and solved the model with the method of interval optimization. Checkedby examples, the interval analysis gave a good result for the uncertainty problem in whichthe sample data are not enough.(2) Determining the early-warning indices of the dam. According to the recordeddeformation data and the safety principles of stability and strength, and applying thenon-probability model based on interval analysis, we determined the early-warning indices.We then got reasonable results when comparing with the corresponding indices instatistical model.(3) Studying the early-warning system of the dam. Starting from the real projectinstances and the determined indices for different levels, we systematically constructed theearly-warning system and decision supporting system of the dam.