The Application Of Scenario Planning In The Urban District Planning Research

Entering the21st century, along with the increasingly perfecting of market economy, theold city development reaches saturation, the new urbanization planning turns out to be thefocus of the future urban development. The lack of traditional urban planning’s flexibility andthe deviation between actual urban development construction and planning objectives becomepart of the bottleneck of traditional urban district planning’s development. With a new mode ofthinking, a new planning perspective to think about the importance of the future’s uncertaintyis increasingly prominent. Taking Tai’an dawen river riverside district as an example, study the application ofscenario planning method in the new area planning. Combined with the external requirementsof dawen river riverside’s reality, based on the analysis of the urban environment uncertainty,the urban district planning and the related content of scenario planning, to demonstrate thenecessity and the possibility of using scenario planning in riverside district planning. The main research parts implement the application research of scenario planningmethod’s five levels in Tai’an dawen river riverside new city planning,from situationfoundation, determine the focal point and key factor analysis, inductive setting scheme, richscene simulation and evaluation scenario. For dawen river riverside new district, this paper puts forward three kinds of possiblefuture scenarios, the Scenario A:the dominant ecological tourism development model (insteady or environmental priority intention and under the condition of plenty of funds, the newfeatures prominent ecotourism scene). Scenario B:the industry leading comprehensive newmodel (under steady intention or emphasis on the real economy and the two financial conditions, outstanding manufacturing priority setting). Scenario C;the balanced developmentmodel (under environmental priority function is outstanding manufacturing, or prominentecological tourism functions at the same time in the emphasis on the real economy situation). Then the paper analysises and puts forward principles, assumptions and situationalinference under each scenario simulation project concept; Through the implementation ofspecific space design, rich scene simulation scheme, get may land layout plan, evaluate thethree scenarios simulation scheme, choose the dominant scheme can be realized. Then becauseof the future is full of uncertainty, the paper puts forward some implement monitoringindicators for scene simulation program C, so that the city managers get a grip on realitychanges and flexible use in the process of planning. Finally, through large Tai’an City riverside planning finding out reflection points shouldbe paid attention to when using scenario planning method in the urban district planning.