Analysis Of Port Bay Reservoir Dam Deformation Monitoring Model

Deformation monitoring is an important tool for monitoring the safety of thedeformable body，the specific process is to obtain the raw data by monitoring thedeformation of the deformable body，and then deformation data will be analyzed andprocessed to determine the security status of the deformable body．In the early andlong-running water，there is the possibility of dam accident．Once the abnormal stateof the dam must be timely detection and treatment，it may lead to serious consequences.But for dam deformation monitoring object type analysis，in addition to concern pastdeformation state，deformation should also be possible to predict the deformation ofthe body in the future，and real-time monitoring of the security situation deformablebody，the prevention of accidents in advance，this requires the establishment of themonitoring body deformation prediction model．Deformation monitoring model is tocount and analyze the result of the existing deformation monitoring data，and identifiesthe regularity of data，then uses modeling tools to establish monitoring models topredict the possible shape to reach the next cycle variables．This paper chooses Port Bay Reservoir Dam as deformation monitoring object whichhas got a lot of deformation monitoring data in different monitoring cycle from2003to2012each year，uses the Matlab software which has powerful numerical calculationand simulation capabilities and uses limit error method and Lagrange interpolationmethod to preprocess the raw monitoring data，then based on gray system theory andartificial neural network theory，establishes monthly, quarterly，annual model on thebasis of GM(1，1) model and BP neural network model to predict and analyze thepreprocessed data，and combines the actual situation of Port Bay Reservoir Dam toanalysis the reliability of the model， draws some conclusions apply to Port BayReservoir Dam safety monitoring．...