Research On Power Load Forecasting Of Zhengzhou

Power Industry is the basis of the national economy sectors, which is closely connected with the economic lifeline of a country and the progress of people life. Power load forecasting is a important work of the load dispatch department and the load plan department. Zhengzhou is the important city of Central Plans Economic Zone. So Power load forecasting of Zhengzhou is of great importance.Firstly, this paper introduced the research background of Power load forecasting, drawn the significance of the research, reviewed the research situation at home and abroad, analyzed the main problem, and described the main content of the research.Secondly, this paper analyzed the related theory of gray prediction, including the concept of power load, the classification of power load, the feature of power load forecasting, the requirement and principles of power load forecasting, the procedures and error of power load forecasting.Thirdly, the related theory of gray prediction is researched. As to the problem of narrow application range and low forecast precision of the traditional gray prediction, this paper improved gray prediction from date series transformation, the initial value and equal-dimension and new-information model. On this basis, the predictive error was corrected based on Markov process, and the Gray-Markov prediction method was proposed.Then, the state of Zhengzhou city was introduced. The demand of electricity and electricity structure of Zhengzhou city from year 2005 to year 2012 was analyzed. Gray correlation analysis was used to filer the main influences of the middle or long term electric load. The main influences’ relationship with the middle or long term electric load and its’ trends was researched, to qualitatively predict the power load.Finally, the Gray-Markov prediction method was used to quantitatively forecast the power load of Zhengzhou city from year 2013 to year 2017. The result of qualitatively forecasting and quantitatively forecasting were comprehensively analyzed, and suggestions about the development of electric power for Zhengzhou city were put forward.