Study On The Short Term Wind Speed Prediction Of Wind Farm And The Simulation Of AGC

In recent years, along with a series of problems about energy crisis and environmental pollution, wind power as a clean and renewable energy mining method has been paid lots of attention and widely developed all over the world. However, the randomness and fluctuation of wind makes the grid connected operation of wind power still exists a series of problems. Data driven thought was used to study the methods of wind speed and wind power prediction, and used MATLAB to simulate and study the effect of wind power prediction to the improvement of automatic generation control(AGC).First, selected the actual data collected from the wind field, using the data driven thought as a guidance, auto regressive and moving average(ARMA) model and grey Verhulst model were selected to predict wind speed for one step and multi step, the prediction step is ten minutes. The multi step prediction is achieved by using rolling prediction method and the equal dimension supplement of wind data, and finally, the results of different methods were compared.Secondly, put forward a variable weight combining prediction method which combined ARMA model and grey model. Different from the unchangeable weight combining prediction method, this method is based on the data driven thought, and it can change the weight of different models by analyzing their prediction accuracy. In this way, it can not only to achieve the comprehensive utilization of data information between the different forecasting methods, but also to prevent the weight coefficient constant impact on the prediction accuracy in real time.Thirdly, the measured data of wind field was chosen to fit the curve between wind speed and wind power, and the relationship between them was found, the wind power prediction result was obtained from the wind speed prediction data.At last, the two square AGC model was built by using MATLAB, and introduced the wind power prediction result to AGC control. By comparing the regulating effects of the AGC system before and after introducing wind power prediction result, proved the positive effect of introducing wind power prediction result.