Combined Displacement Prediction And Monitoring Analysis Of Considering Multi-effect For Concrete Dam

With the improvement of dam safety management theory and technology, dam safety monitoring was moving in large data and fine direction. Routine monitoring model had been difficult to meet the requirements of hydraulic dam safety monitoring, for the shortcomings of traditional modeling methods, in order to find a dam displacement prediction model of high precision and strong adaptability, combined model, leapfrog algorithm, chaos theory, artificial bee colony algorithm method were introduced. By the exploration of the application of leapfrog combination forecasting methods and artificial bee colony algorithm in the area of dam monitoring model on the basis of multi-ramp and the residual effect. The main contents are as follows:(1) Based on the combing of each effect’s physical meaning of the statistical model and a mixed model, with the superiority of single forecast model unity, a combined forecasting model of concrete dam safety monitoring was build, and the leapfrog combination forecasting model was built by the use of SFLA (SFLA) local optimization and global optimization performance to determine the optimal weight coefficients of each sub-model.(2) In view of the traditional forecasting models were difficult to interpret the parameters of each effect size varying characteristics, a multi-layer hierarchical method was introduced, which combined with the model of time-varying characteristics of dynamic systems, a combination forecasting mode was built in the consideration of a variable effect and chaos residual, and developing implementation procedures, the effectiveness of the model was demonstrate by engineering examples.(3) Based on the probability selection method of Boltzmann, the adaptive mechanisms was introduced to control the execution of the algorithm selection pressure, and an improved artificial bee colony algorithm was built, accordingly, by the use of Matlab and Ansys platform, and running the inversion of the dam and the dam foundation elastic modulus implement optimization, the effectiveness of the model was demonstrate by engineering examples.