The Study Of Differentiated Power System Planning Method Based On Meteorological Factor

With the changes of global climate, extreme weather events become more and more frequent in recent years, which cause a serious threat to the security and stability of power grid. After a serious snow disasters happened in the south China in 2008, a method of differentiated power system planning was proposed to optimize the fortification standard levels of different transmission lines for improving the anti-disaster ability while minimize the construction cost as much as possible. The key of the method is to build the core backbone network based on a comprehensive assessment of the importance of all node and lines. This thesis focuses on how to design the fortification standard of different lines in different areas based on backbone grid which has been built for power grid.The method of differentiated power system planning in this thesis is mainly based on the idea of risk assessment. Firstly, the generalized extreme value distribution(GEV) is used to study the conductor icing probability model, which can obtain icing thickness under extreme weather conditions specific probability. Secondly, combined with the exponential failure rate function of the line under withstand stress, a comprehensive line failure rate model is established under certain icing conditions. Thirdly, design the line strengthening standard according to its failure rate. Especially, transmission lines traverse several geographical regions which undergo different weather conditions should be divided into different parts to calculate its failure rate. Finally, based on the improved life cycle cost of the economic evaluation method, calculate the strengthened cost and the benefit from loss reduction in the differentiated planning. Through multiple examples, the economic assessment results of differentiated planning scheme, compared to previous conclusions, prove that the method of differentiated power system planning in this thesis is effective.