Study Of Pedestrian Street-Crossing Safety Based On Survival Analysis And Discrete Choice Model

With the concept of green environmental and sustainable development being pointed out,more and more cities encourage pedestrian traffic, bicycle traffic, and a sustainable development of urban traffic: walk system, public traffic system and bicycle system. A traffic survey of Chongqing in 2008 shows that, about 49.9% urban residents rely on walking as their main travel mode. With the popularization of slow transport, the conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles and the phenomenon of pedestrian violations of traffic signal has become an increasingly serious problem. With the concept of people-oriented be proposed, the safety of pedestrians and cyclists have no longer been ignored, the efficiency and comfort of pedestrian trip will be guaranteed as well. But how to inhibit pedestrian violations of traffic light is an important factor to the study of pedestrian traffic. In this paper, data was collected using questionnaires and video recordings. The waiting time of pedestrians at signalized intersections were studied based on survival analysis and the preference of pedestrian’s cross-street facilities by discrete choice model.The waiting time of pedestrians based on survival analysis concludes that: ① The longer pedestrians waited for, the higher the violation rate of pedestrians was; ② About 12% of pedestrians were at the lowest waiting time to cross the intersection ignoring the red light, about 13.4% of pedestrians were generally non-risk takers who can obey the traffic signals after waiting for a long time; ③ Age factor isn’t significant, but the elderly pedestrians were less likely to run red lights. And male pedestrians inclined to wait shorter time than men; ④ The waiting time of pedestrians ranged from 0 to 50 s and it would decrease with the wider pedestrian crossings, the longer pedestrian red time, the heavier vehicle flow, as well as the smaller pedestrian flow; ⑤ Using 85 percent of waiting time as the maximum waiting time, then the maximum waiting time at the intersection with large vehicle flow is 46 s, while at the intersection with large pedestrian flow is 47s; ⑥ Herd mentality、red light’s time、pedestrian’s crossing time are factors that affect the red light running behavior of pedestrian,we can inhibit this phenomenon by publicizing traffic safety knowledge and punishment.The preference of pedestrian’s cross-street facilities based on discrete choice model concludes that: ① The pedestrian’s age, detour distance are significant factors that affect the preference of pedestrian’s cross-street facilities; ② Logit regression model can better simulate the preference of pedestrian’s cross-street facilities, the overall predictive value is 0.9280; ③ This paper proposes to strengthen the pedestrian’s traffic management at noon time.