Stochastic Production Simulation Of Photovoltaic Generation And Its Credible Capacity Assessment

Grid- integrated photovoltaic generation has a large impact on the power system because of its obvious characteristics of volatility and intermittent. Thus, the research on large capacity photovoltaic integrationis significant to long-term planning and optimal operation. In this paper, there are two aspects to study photovoltaic given, one is stochastic production simulation of photovoltaic generation, the second is credible capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic generation.First, the probabilistic production simulation based on equivalent energy frequency method, including photovoltaic power generation. This paper introduces the concept of stochastic production simulation and the calculation principle in the discrete system under the stochastic production simulation, the method is called the equivalent energy frequency method. After that, according to the characteristics of the solar power generation solar units, the paper choose the method how to deal with power generation solar units in stochastic production simulation and analysis the power system cost. This paper uses the Guangdong power grid for stochastic production simulation, photovoltaic power generation can replace conventional generating units and improve the reliability level of the system, but increase the open downtime of conventional units. Through the stochastic production cost analysis of simulation results, with the increase of PV installed capacity, the system cost is not always reduce, there will be appeared an inflection point. This point is defined as a photovoltaic given in this paper, photovoltaic given capacity of Guangdong power grid is 7800 MW.Second, to assess the ability that grid-connected photovoltaic power station to replace conventional units. Therefore, this paper uses the state o f the units as variable, to minimize reliability bias and to maximize the power efficiency as a dual goal, reliability limit and screening unit as constraint conditions. Multi-objective reinforcement learning algorithm is used to solve the multi-objective model.To determine the Pareto optimal compromise solution by tangent method, then find credit capacity and capacity of credibility of grid-connected photovoltaic power plant.Taking an example of power grid system of Guangdong province, the credible capacity of the PV power generation is calculated, and the simulation results verify the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that capacity of credibility of photovoltaic power plant is between 20%-25%, and with the increase in access capacity of photovoltaic capacity, thecapacity of credibility is on a downward trend.Other factors such as photoelectric output model, the penetration power of photoelectric effect on photovoltaic power station credible capacity are also studied in this paper.