Research On The Method Of Determining Prior Distribution In Low-voltage Switchgear Reliability Assessment

Low-voltage switchgear equipment is widely used in industrial areas, public places, civilian areas and other occasions, its reliability level plays an important role for production and living can go smoothly. Conventional relia bility evaluation method is applied to low-voltage switchgear equipment reliability assessment required for a long time,cost a large. And based on the theory of Bayes theorem of low-voltage switchgear equipment reliability evaluation method can be very good solution to this problem.First of all, the reliability evaluation process based on the theory of Bayes theorem and general method of determining of the prior distribution was studied in the paper, at the same time analyzed to the basic flow of de termine the prior distribution method as well as the advantages and disadvantages. And the research of cla ssification was carried out on various methods.Second, because the advantages of conjuga te method is convenient and reasonable explanation the parameters in the posterior distribution when determ ining of the prior distribution. In this paper, the evaluating ideas of select conjugate distribution to determine the prior distribution is proposed. At the same time, study the super parameter determination method in the prior distribution. Based on the conjugate distribution method, do the reliability evaluation to low-voltage switchgear equipment.Finally, combined with the definition of double param eters to the entropy and the maximum entropy principle, studies the low- voltage switchgear equipm ent reliability evaluation using the m aximum entropy method to determine the prior distribution. In the process of evaluation, analyze the robustness of the prior distribution and posteriori robustness, get the low-voltage switchgear average estimate about trouble-free working time.